GARNET VALLEY SCHOOL DISTRICT

George Sundell, Principal Demographer Sundance Associates George Sundell, Principal Demographer 45 years directing Facilities Planning Projects 20 Years of Demographic Consulting Enrollment projections for K-12 Public School Districts Expertise Regional District Studies Regionalization/Withdrawal Studies Accelerated Residential Construction Impact of Charter Schools Closure-Reorganization of Parochial Schools Redistricting Redistricting for changing enrollment utilizing GIS Mapping Camden City; 12,500 students, 24 schools, PK-12 Cherry Hill; 11,300 students, 15 schools, PK-12 Edison Township; 14,000 students, 16 schools, PK-12 Tredyffrin-Easttown; 6,000 students, 8 schools, K-12

Enrollment Projections Cohort Survival Methodology or Grade Level Progression Primarily based on Historic Enrollments & Birth Rates Acceptable Modifications through Certified Demographers Report Planning Sciences Statistical Analysis

Modifications to Projections Charter, Private & Parochial School Status School Choice Programs Changes in Curriculum or OOD Students Seasonal Fluctuations Impact of additional housing beyond the historic average Housing Mix : Types and Number of Bedrooms Multipliers for Public School Children by housing type and number of bedrooms Recovery from Recession Level Resales

Municipalities and District Concord ES ALL K and Gr 1-2 GarnetValley ES Gr 3-5 Bethel Springs Gr 1-5 3 Municipalities 5 Schools 3 Elementary (2 associated) 1 Middle 1 High 4,809 Students (Oct 2016)

Public & Private School Attendance Share 2013-15 GVSD attendance is 9% above Delaware County and 4% above Pennsylvania

Population Growth

2010 Age & Gender Pyramid Male Female Childbearing Age 20-39 years old Fewer children

2010 Age & Gender Pyramid Male Female Childbearing Age 20-39 years old Fewer children

2010 Age & Gender Pyramid Male Female Childbearing Age 20-39 years old

Population by Age Group Type Age 1990 2000 2010 Percents 1990 2000 2010 Pre-School 0-4 209 332 541 -48 493 Pre-School 6.28% 8.43% 5.61% School Age 5-17 607 877 1,484 442 1,926 School Age 18.23% 23.11% 21.91% Childbearing 18-39 1131 688 1,819 -108 1,711 Childbearing 33.96% 28.33% 19.46% Middle Age 40-64 1030 1005 2,035 1,493 3,528 Middle Age 30.93% 31.69% 40.13% Seniors 65 + 353 189 542 591 1,133 Seniors 10.60% 8.44% 12.89% 3,330 6,421 8,791 100% 100% 100% Type Age 1990   2000 2010 Percents Pre-School 0-4 209 332 541 -48 493 6.28% 8.43% 5.61% School Age 5-17 607 877 1,484 442 1,926 18.23% 23.11% 21.91% Childbearing 18-39 1131 688 1,819 -108 1,711 33.96% 28.33% 19.46% Middle Age 40-64 1030 1005 2,035 1,493 3,528 30.93% 31.69% 40.13% Seniors 65 + 353 189 542 591 1,133 10.60% 8.44% 12.89% 3,330 6,421 8,791 100% Population by Age Group

Population by Age Group

Population by Age Group

Annual Births by Municipality

District Births by School Year Cohort Survival Projection uses the186 Average of 5 Years 5-Year Trend is for 1 fewer births each year

Residential Permitting From 2008 to 2012 Permitting averaged 43 units per year

Residential Permitting Residential Permitting over the next 5 years may increase to 231 units in 2019.

Future Residential Permitting 489 Approved units in the next 5 years of which 263 units are Age-Restricted from 9 projects An additional 352 units not approved from 3 projects 841 total units in a mix of Single and Multi-Family developments Developers were contacted to determine their planned build-out schedules

Public School Age Children from Future Residential Construction 112 new students in the next 5 years from approved housing An additional 101 possible new students from “near approval” housing Total is possible 213 new students

Location of Public School Age Children from Future Residential Construction

Demographics Summary Private & Parochial School Enrollment is not impacting Charter & Choice School Enrollment is not impacting Population is stable in all municipalities Youngest Age Groups are increasingly smaller Childbearing Age population decreased 6-Year Birth Trend decreasing by 1 per year Middle Age and Senior Age populations increasing or stable 489 to 841 new housing units may generate between 112-213 additional students

Cohort Survival Method DATA ENTRY: Births Historic Enrollments

Cohort Survival Method Births Historic Enrollments CALCULATIONS: Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio (S/R) Y2Y Grade Level S/Rs

Cohort Survival Method Births Historic Enrollments Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio (S/R) Y2Y Grade Level S/Rs 5 Year Avg S/R

Cohort Survival Projection Births Historic Enrollments Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio (S/R) Y2Y Grade Level S/Rs 5 Year Avg S/R Projections for 5 Years

Cohort Survival Ratios Grade to Grade Survival Ratios Green bars are ratios > 1.0 and generate increasing enrollment, particularly at the elementary level Red bars are ratios < 1.0 and generate decreasing enrollments beginning in 6th to 7th Grade 1.080

Cohort Growth 1.080

District-wide Enrollment Projections 213 PSAC from new housing with an increase of 324 students in 5 years

Elementary K-Gr 5 Enrollment Projections 98 Elem PSAC added with an increase of 442 students in 5 years

Middle School Gr 6-8 Enrollment Projections 49 Middle School PSAC added with an overall period decrease of 50 students in 5 years

High School Gr 9-12 Enrollment Projections 65 High School PSAC added with a decrease of 67 students in 5 years

Bethel Springs Gr 1-5 Enrollment Projections 10 new PSAC added with a 99 student increase in 5 years

Concord ES Gr K-2 Enrollment Projections 44 new PSAC added with an increase of 167 students in 5 years

Garnet Valley Gr 3-5 Enrollment Projections 44 new PSAC added with an increase of 135 students

5-Year Enrollment Projections Summary 5-Year Projected District Steadily increases 324 students by 2021 Includes 213 students from new housing K- Gr 5 Increases 442 students Includes 98 students from new housing Gr 6-8 Decreases by 50 students Includes 49 students from new housing Gr 9-12 Decreases by 67 students Includes 65 students from new housing

5-Year Enrollment Projections Elementary Summary 5-Year Projected Bethel Springs Gr -5 Increases 99 students Includes 10 students from new housing Concord Gr K-2 Increases 167 students Includes 44 students from new housing Garnet Valley Gr 3-5 Increases 135 students

Thank You Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Ct. Cherry Hill, NJ 08034 Tel 856-755-0174 www.SundanceAssoc.com GSundell@SundanceAssoc.com