INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS 2. background 4/5/2019 M. Gams matjaz.gams@ijs.si

Three worlds with different properties Intelligent systems - integration of the three ELECTRONIC WORLD Collapse of time, space.

Definition: information society   Definition: information society More than 50% of GDP related to information/knowledge. More than 50% of employees active in the information economy (immaterial labour). Economy based on transition from material goods to information/knowledge (primary and secondary sector, e.g. OECD 1981, 1986). IS started 1970-1980? Constantly growing! Slovenian growth

Possibilities s

BASIC I.S. LAWS Moore’s law (exponential growth of chip capabilities) Metcalf’s law: value(network) = square(no. of nodes) or n*logn (size of network is very important; internet) Sidgemor’s law (exponential growth of net traffic, of transmission capabilities) Andreesen Lewis Fleming... net capitalism = frictionless economy, information economy, Internet economy, new economy (global, liberal, without rectrictions, regulations)

Laws mMetcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes Moore's Law Metcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes – social networks - Internet Sidgemore's Law - traffic doubles every three months Andreesen's Law - cost of bandwidth is dropping Disk capacity (+electronic basic properties) also grows exponential Lewis/Flemig's Law - friction-free economy, booming, self-regulating (Greenspan) Gilder’s Law (The Law of Telecoms) - Total telecommunications system capacity (b/s) triples every three years Put on the Internet all your information and activities FB:mail The cyber-world doubles fortune (real or fictive?? – current crises) Side effect of information society is information overload Information society demands intensive information knowledge for successful leadership Information society belongs to all of us The Internet is the most democratic and free media in the world The Internet and information society are our hope for the future

Moore’s Law

Saturation – When?

Human Generations Generation no. Generation name Main object I. Agrarian Food II. Industrial Production III. Post-industrial Services IV. Information s. Information

IS Impact on Humans (Lewis) Generation name Duration Comm. Speed Agrarian 3000-5000 years 3-5 km/h human Industrial 300-500 30-50 horse, car Post-industrial 30-50 300-500 airplane Information 30? 3000-5000 network

Human Saturation Info clock >> biological clock Terminal velocity Conflict between biological and information clock Humans can’t cope with information overflow Solution: WE NEED INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS

Computer Generations Assistant / AGENTS Generation no. Generation name Status I. Machine-level Slave II. Programming III. Tools IV. Information society Assistant / AGENTS

Human Brain Progress

Moravec

Exponential vs. linear growth Memory

Turing test

Weak intelligence Unknown barrier

Moravec

Discussion Information society - technological, human, social Intelligent systems - SW generation with some degree of intelligence Intelligence (human, artificial, technical) is essential True intelligent revolution decades away Incredible possibilities ahead of us (first technical intelligent systems, later true AI) that may prevent saturation of human civilisation (overcrowded, shortage of oil and recources …) and jump ahead

THE FUTURE WILL BE INTELLIGENT