A Population Bomb? Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England) Pessimist population would outrun food supply decrease in food per person. Assumptions Populations grow exponentially. Food supply grows arithmetically. Food shortages and chaos inevitable. Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England) -Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly *** Believed people needed to practice ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or there needed to be a disaster to increase CDR in order to solve population problem

Neo-Malthusians Maybe Malthus WAS on to something…builds upon Malthus Food not only resource strained by population growth Recognizes that population growth in LDC’s is from the transfer of medical talents from MDC’s (Docs w/o Borders) but not the wealth that would provide food and resources…would their growth be that high without this impact? Population has outpaced economic growth Sometimes technology does more hurt than good Green Revolution (science applied to farming)

Neo-Malthusians (Supporters of Malthus) Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought: 1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of medical technology 2. new population “stripping” world of resources Neo Malthusians 1) Ehrlich (1960s) warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s population was outpacing food production. No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehrlich’s thoughts? 2) Robert Kaplan and Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon “Survival of the Fittest” (Hunger Games!)

Critics of Malthus Critics of Malthus Esther Boserup and Simon Kuznets-larger population would stimulate growth, will lead to the production of more food; more people=more consumers, more creativity Julian Simon-more people=more brains Friedrich Engels-(Marxist) believed that world has enough resources, if only those resources were shared equally (critic of Capitalism)- Copeland-resources are not fixed, trade allows for potential elimination of possibilism

Ester Boserup on population Optimist. “Necessity is the mother of invention.” Human growth stimulates agricultural intensification (Malthus upside-down) More people=more minds=more innovation. Opposite of Malthus

Malthus: Mid 1700’s Boserup: Mid 1900’s Malthus vs. Boserup Think: Why do the dates make a difference in their theories of population?

What is the DTM? Since the Industrial Revolution, a pattern of progress has been observed as countries develop The DTM refers to the trend where populations move AWAY from High Birth and High Death Rates to Low Birth and Death Rates (more stable) Countries move through STAGES as they develop which impacts their BR and DR and their population growth Not all countries develop at the same rate so countries of the world are at different stages in the transition

Stage 1: Low Growth Birth Rate is high as a result of: Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education CBR and CDR are both very high and relatively equal RNI is almost ZERO CBR and CDR widely change from year to year Primarily seen in hunter- gatherer societies NO COUNTRIES ARE HERE TODAY

Stage 2: High Growth CDR drops dramatically CBR still high Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates CDR drops dramatically CBR still high RNI increases rapidly Life expectancy increases Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries

Stage 3: Moderate Growth/Late Expanding Reasons: Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women CBR starts to decline CDR continues to stay low RNI is much slower growth Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa, Chile, China, Brazil

Latin America Most countries in Latin America have moved to Stage 3 in recent years Medical technology reaching Latin countries in late 20th century pushed them into stage 3 “Chile’s rural society underwent urbanization in the 1960s causing them to move into stage 3 . However, most Chileans still prefer large families so it will be some time before they move into stage 4.”

Stage 4: Low Growth Current Examples: Many European countries Reasons for Change: Women in workforce instead of home Availability of Birth Control Changes in leisure activity not suitable for couples with children (bars, travel) Higher education levels Pessimism about future A country reaches this point when the CBR and CDR are low and almost equal RNI of almost 0 (Zero Population Growth) or close to Negative Population Growth. Current Examples: Many European countries United States Canada

Europe Natural Growth: The Demographic Transition Model Europe continues to experience slow natural growth (birth rates lower than or almost equal to death rates What stage is this? New Stage? Immigration prevents population decline… Where have we seen this? Causes? Effects?

Europe’s Population Implosion Shrinking population rather than a growing population – below Zero Population Growth (ZPG) Reaction to urbanization and the expense of raising children in urban/industrial societies fertility rates in some countries have dropped below 2.1 Industrialization and urbanization usually move a country to the fourth stage of the demographic transition

Stage 5 Birth Rate falls lower than the Death Rate Negative NIR—Shrinking population Aging populations can put a strain on economies Expensive to support a high dependence load Examples of Countries in Stage 5 (very beginning)—Russia, Japan, Germany

Demographic Transition Model Stage one: LOW GROWTH Crude birth/death rate both high, cancels out growth Stage two: HIGH GROWTH Death rates lower, diffusion of medicine, better nutrition Natural increase high because births still high Stage three: MODERATE GROWTH Typical of richer developed countries Higher standards of living/education Both birth and death start to decline Stage Four: LOW-ZERO-NEGATIVE GROWTH CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost = ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth Demographic Transition Model

STRENGTHS of Demographic Transition Model Shows changes over time well It has worked well for European and North American industrialized countries It has worked for some East Asian countries such as South Korea but this country has gone through the stages much quicker with the introduction of technology for industrialization and quick impact of medicine The model can highlight certain events and be used for explanations (OCP)

WEAKNESSES of Demographic Transition Model - Based on the experience of industrialized countries and forgets that a country can develop in other ways such as through a tourist industry - The model assumes that the death rate falling in Stage 2 is due to industrial revolutions but this is now more due to medical care improvements (Red Cross) - Some countries are developed but still have high birth rates – this is due to culture, religion, immigration and not evidence of a poor, less developed country - Original model needs to change to include an unexpected Stage 5 or 6

Remember… Demographic Transition is not only dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out migration…hence the Demographic Equation!!!!

Demographic equation: Calculates population change more accurately Calculates births minus deaths plus (or minus) migration.