the gregory group January 25, 2019 State of the Housing Market: Sacramento Sacramento Sierra Chapter/Appraisal Institute January 25, 2019 www.thegregorygroup.com

Existing Home Analysis The Gregory Group

Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

2018 YTD = 1.8% The Gregory Group

Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

New-Home Analysis The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group Top ten communities account for 82.3% of all new-home sales There are no top ten community with an average price that is less than $400,000 Only four ten communities have an average price that is less than $500,000 © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group Greater than $700,000 = 0.48 sales per week $500,000 - $700,000 = 0.64 sales per week Less than $500,000 = 0.79 sales per week © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group

New Home Sales By Price Range Q4/2005 Q4/2018 252 Total Projects 174 Total Projects 38 Attached Projects (15.1%) 4 Attached Projects (2.3%) 65 Projects on Lots < 4,000 SF (25.8%) 62 Projects on Lots < 4,000 SF (35.6%) 17 Projects w/Average Price < $300,000 (6.7%) 2 Projects w/Average Price < $300,000 (1.2%) 34 Projects w/Average Price < $400,000 (19.5%) © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group Lennar accounts for 23.8% of the market share! The top ten builders account for 76.5% of the Sacramento Region market share © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: The Gregory Group

Source: FreddieMac, The Gregory Group Greater than $600,000 = 0.50 sales per week $500,000 - $600,000 = 0.73 sales per week Less than $500,000 = 0.88 sales per week © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: FreddieMac, The Gregory Group

Source: US Census Bureau, The Gregory Group

Source: FreddieMac, The Gregory Group

Source: FreddieMac, The Gregory Group

Conclusions The Gregory Group

Sacramento Region (Six-County) Population Change 2017 - 2027 The greatest number of ageing baby-boomers will be in Sacramento County (an increase of 96,623 people during the next ten years), while Placer County will post the greatest 35 – 44 year old number growth (an increase of 14,346). Ages 25 – 44 years: 99,407 person increase 15.8% Ages 65 years and greater: 169,457 person increase 45.4% © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: California Department of Finance, The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group

Source: California Department of Finance © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: California Department of Finance

© 2018 The Gregory Group Source: California Employment Development Department, The Gregory Group

Median income in the Sacramento Region falls into three “bands”: El Dorado and Placer Counties at greater than $70,000, Sacramento and Yolo Counties at nearly $60,000 and Sutter and Yuba Counties at greater than $50,000. © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: California Employment Development Department, The Gregory Group

Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group New Home Sales -- Projection © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: The Gregory Group

Source: The Gregory Group New Home Price -- Projection © 2018 The Gregory Group Source: The Gregory Group

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