Agricultural Marketing ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1

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Futures Market Exchanges Competitive markets Open out-cry and electronic trading Centralized pricing Buyers and sellers are both in the market Relevant information is conveyed through the bids and offers for the trades Bid = the price at which a trader would buy the commodity Offer = the price at which a trader would sell the commodity 10 10

CME Group http://www.cmegroup.com/ Products Agricultural commodities Corn, soy, cattle, hogs, etc. Energy Currency Metals Weather Others

Futures Contracts A legally binding contract to make or take delivery of the commodity Trading the promise to do something in the future You can “offset” your promise Standardized contract Form (weight, grade, specifications) Time (delivery date) Place (delivery location)

Soybean Futures Form Time 5,000 bushels No. 2 Yellow Soybeans (at price), No. 1 Yellow soybeans (at 6 cents over price), and No. 3 Yellow Soybeans (at 6 cents under price) Time Contract months: Sept, Nov, Jan, Mar, May, July, and August Source: CME Group

Soybean Futures Partial listing of delivery points Source: CME Group Rulebook

Delivery Points Corn Soybeans Wheat Source: Irwin, Garcia, Good, and Kunda, 2009 Marketing and Outlook Research Report 2009-02

Futures Contracts No physical exchange takes place when the contract is traded (no actual commodity moves) Payment is based on the price established when the contract was initially traded (prices can and will change before delivery is taken) Deliveries can be made when the contract expires or the offsetting futures position must be taken to settle up Deliveries occur on less than 5 percent of the traded contracts

Market Positions You can either buy or sell initially to open a position in the futures market “Make” a promise to make or take delivery Do the opposite to close the position at a later date “Offset” the promise (and no commodity changes hands) Trader may also hold the position until expiration and make or take physical delivery of the commodity

Trading Futures Contracts All trades through a licensed broker Brokerage house has a “seat” at the exchange and is allowed to trade Represented “on the floor” to exercise trade Local broker to initiate transaction and manage account with client Full service and discount brokers

Terms and Definitions Basis Bear Bull The difference between the spot or cash price and the futures price of the same or a related commodity. Bear Someone that thinks the price will decline Bull Someone that thinks the price will increase

Cash vs. Futures Prices Iowa Corn in 2011 The gap between the lines is the basis.

2011 Basis for Iowa Corn

Terms and Definitions Clearing House Commission The division of the futures exchange through which all trades made must be confirmed, matched and settled each day until offset or delivered. Commission For futures contracts, the one-time fee charged by a broker to cover the trades you make to open and close each position.

Terms and Definitions Long position Short position A position in which the trader has bought a futures contract that does not offset a previously established short position. Short position A position in which the trader has sold a futures contract that does not offset a previously established long position.

Going Short Sold Nov. 2012 Soybeans @ $12.22 What type of trader (bull or bear) would go short? What events would send prices in a favorable direction?

Going Long Bought Dec. 2012 Corn @ $5.84 What type of trader (bull or bear) would go long? What events would send prices in a favorable direction?

Class web site: Have a great weekend! http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Classes/econ337/Spring2012/ Have a great weekend!