A Model of Mass Incarceration and Crime Peter Temin MIT

Mass Incarceration US has the largest proportion of citizens in prison Among advanced economies US has 5% of world population and 25% of world prisoners Mass incarceration is hardly mentioned in policy discussions How many people know that 1 out of 3 African American men go to prison at today’s incarceration rates? These are problems that urgently need to be addressed

Figure 1

Crime: c = f (i) Non-linear function dc/di < 0 at low incarceration rates (i) dc/di > 0 at high incarceration rates (i) Todd Clear, Imprisoning Communities (2007) Mass incarceration destroys community organization Destroys “social capital” See the movie, Moonlight Leads to a cubic function (as Clear noted)

Incarceration i = g (c) / r g (c) is linear for simplicity Slope depends on public policies The interest here is in changes in policies The curves lead to a stable equilibrium as shown in Figure 2 As in other developed countries and the US before 1970

i c c i Figure 2

American events America was in turmoil in the 1960s through the 1980s Urban riots spread in the late 1960s War on Drugs started by Nixon, expanded by Reagan 1986 and 1988 laws set minimum jail terms for drug crimes Penalty for crack cocaine 100x penalty for powder cocaine Blacks use crack cocaine; whites use powder Sharply reduced the slope of g (c) as shown in figure 3 (line i3) Created two stable equilibria Line (i2) shows conditions during Nixon’s War on Drugs

i2 i1 c i3 c B A c i Figure 3

Kerner Commission, 1968 Commission clearly stated that problems were societal Riots were started by blacks trying for equality with whites But Nixon created War on Drugs: crimes of individuals He wanted to condemn blacks who opposed Vietnam War He used individual crimes to demonize blacks Nixon and Reagan followed Birth of a Nation: demonizing “rapists” And KKK in lynching individuals Creating a New Jim Crow (Alexander, 2010) More history of state bills in my paper

What can be done now? Obama tried to eliminate 100:1 punishment of blacks 2010 prison reform law only reduced it to 28:1 Private prisons now hold about 10% of prisoners Private prisons want more—not fewer—prisoners Larger share of immigrants who are waiting for hearings Recommendations are to ease the burden of mass incarceration, not eliminate it Educate prisoners, reduce employment discrimination, etc. A few isolated hopeful signs DAs (Krasner in Philadelphia) have declined to prosecute minor offenses Federal FIRST STEP Act helps federal convicts (<10% of total)

Current prospects Staying at our new equilibrium for coming years There are lots of DAs in lots of cities and states The FIRST STEP Act is just that Mass incarceration harms urban education Children of felons cannot concentrate Prisons receive state funds taken from education New “originalist” judges probably will fight change Taking us back to antebellum times Current Incarceration rates by income and race (Chetty, 2018)

Incarceration Rates vs. Parent Income Rank Male Children Pct. of Children Incarcerated on April 1, 2010 (Ages 27-32) Incarceration Rates vs. Parent Income Rank Male Children White Black 20 15 Diff. at p=25: -8.2 10 Diff. at p=75: -3.2 5 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Household Income Rank