Global energy and water cycle group

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Presentation transcript:

Global energy and water cycle group Other links: Christine Chiu (DACCIWA?) Charlie Williams (CALM) Ellie Highwood (FENNEC, SAPRISE) NCAS Climate NCEO Pier Luigi Vidale, Emily Black, … Chunlei Liu Harry Pitt Wing Horyuji PAGODA DEEP-C Till Kuhlbrodt Jonathan Gregory PhD projects Ross Maidment (TAMSAT group) Kerrian Ferreira (with Nigel Arnell) Zahra Mousavi (with Keith Shine) Matthias Zahn Harry Pitt Wing PREPARE project With Lennart Begtsson SINATRA? Hannah Cloke GES/Met Richard Allan 2U15 JCWRP HadIR David Lavers Walker institute HydEF project With Andrew Wade & David Brayshaw Viju John Met Office Global energy and water cycle group

Diagnosing Earth’s Energy Pathways in the Climate System (DEEP-C) NERC project Where is the excess energy currently going? By combining satellite data with ARGO observations we estimate a heating rate of around 0.5 Wm-2 in the period 2000-2010. There is no “missing energy” in the climate system, as argued by Trenberth and Fasullo (2010): the satellite and ocean data are in agreement to within observational uncertainty. We plan to seek funding to extend this work to understand the processes involved in “hiatus” decades using climate modelling, ocean observing systems and satellite Earth radiation budget datasets. Global annual average temperature anomalies relative to 1951–1980 mean (shading denotes lower and upper 95% uncertainty range for HadCRUT4) See also Loeb et al. (2012) Nature Geosci.

Moisture transports & extremes of rainfall 21C-20C moisture transports Below: HydEF project linking flooding with atmospheric precursors Above: PREPARE project investigating climate change response of moisture transports e.g. Zahn & Allan (2013) J Clim; Zahn and Allan (2013) in prep Lavers et al. (2011) GRL.; Lavers et al. (2012) JGR

Evaluation of CMIP5 simulations of tropical precipitation Tropical Land “wet” AMIP simulations capture observed interannual variations associated with ENSO [Liu et al. 2012 GRL] Climate change: rich get richer [Liu et al. in prep] % change in precipitation “dry” Liu et al. (2012) GRL; Liu & Allan (2012) JGR