WHO HAS POLITICAL POWER IN TODAY’S RUSSIA? The Constitution: Why was it rewritten in 1993 rather than 1991? Who wrote it? Why didn’t it fundamentally change the system away from authoritarianism? Russia has a surprisingly rich, but completely unenforced Bill of Rights?: http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-03.htm The Constitutional Court: Lots of formal powers, including “abstract” judicial review, but who dares to use it? Its electoral system looks a lot like a combination of Germany’s (leg) and the US (pres) but with the key difference of a directly elected president. Why does Russia have federalism? (local control from the Kremlin: over 89 Regions, 21 Republics, 52 Oblasts)

HOW DOES RUSSIAN “DEMOCRACY” WORK? WHAT IS THE DUMA (Lower House)? It’s a joke The basic structure of the Duma: 450 members, 5-year terms (was SMD, then a Germ mixed elect sys., then a natl. PR w/ 5% threshold… then PR w/ 7%... Now mixed system again)… Whatever it takes to keep United Russia in the majority. Its powers on paper look a lot like ours: Approves legislation, overrides vetoes, can initiate legislation… but in reality only Putin’s party matters What does the Russian PM do? Manages what pres doesn’t want to do; introduces pres. agenda Why is this position presidentially appointed? Why does it have a cabinet of bureaucrats rather than leg peers? Can the Duma fire or reject PMs like a normal parliament? Yes, but pres can respond with new Duma elections WHAT ABOUT THE FEDERAL COUNCIL? (THE RUSSIAN SENATE) Its basic structure: 2 reps per region/republic = 166 members; one selected by state governors, one by state legislatures… But president can reject choices Who selects the governors? Since 2004, the national president (with approval by each state legislature) Powers: it can stop legislation, but can be over-ridden by 2/3 of the Duma; It approves pres appointments to Russian Constit. Court

WHO IS MOST POWERFUL? THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENCY Directly-elected, two-ballot system, with 2, 6-yr terms. Putin did 2 4-year terms, but gets up to 20 years in pres. because of “new” provisions. What are the main powers? Select the PM and the Constitutional Court Controls army, FSB (interior police + KGB); Issues biding Presidential decrees, & vetoes (can be over-ridden by 2/3 of the multiparty Duma) Selects regional governors Why no vice-president or meaningful impeachment process? OTHER POWER CENTERS Organized crime and the oligarchs are now giving way to the security forces (the siloviki, especially those in Putin’s clique) To a lesser degree the military

WHY NO DEMOCRACY IN RUSSIA? Why are constitutional moments so important? First leaders really matter: Yeltsin, Putin, & the creation of super-presidentialism Simultaneous economic and political reform: Is it a good idea? Does no civil society mean you probably have no civil liberties? Does Russia have a democratic political culture? Is it more important to first build a coherent party system? Perhaps the PRI (Mexico) or the CCP (China) is Putin’s goal since Russia emerged from the USSR without coherent parties Why aren’t oligarchs, oil, and democracy aren’t a good mix? How does Putin “manage” democracy—that is stay in power even with elections? “It uses the pol. technologies of the 21st C. to sustain a polical sys of governance that dates from the 16th C.”) The decay and resurgence of Russian imperialism. What do Russians really want? How is Russia using force to challenge the concept of democracy in E. Europe and abroad?

WHY REVOLUTION IN IRAN? Rising expectations (The “White” Revolution changed Iran from 1963 forward; 1973-78 OPEC) The awaiting cult leader (Khomeini) His revolutionary ideology (Islamism) A weakened state: The Shaw and Carter (1976) 1978: Moderate-Radical coalitions seize power in Iran; the Shaw escapes to the US & then Egypt The old trick of using an enemy to consolidate power: Seizing the US embassy (1979) Using war for the same: The Iraq-Iran War (1980-88) Limited purges and consolidation into a somewhat totalitarian state Khomeini ‘s death (1989); Ali Khamenei replaces Since then – back and forth balance bw reformers and moderates/hardliners

THE POLITICAL POWER OF THE MULLAHS IN IRAN: Rule by the Religious Jurist (velayat-e faqih) and a supporting cast of clerics The Supreme leader (Ayatollha/Imam): A monarch/sultan of sort (currently Ali Khamenei) Assembly of Religious Experts (a permanent Electoral College with 86 members who are directly elected every 8 yrs… but vetted by Council of Guardians)) Council of Guardians (12-member; 6 appt. by Supreme Leader, 6 appt. by the Judiciary & approved by parliament for 6 yr. staggered terms) The Revolutionary Guards (an elite army with deep ties into the Iranian economy) Oil and semi-public “Foundations”

IS THERE ANY STRUCTURAL FOUNDATION FOR DEMOCRACY IN IRAN? A directly-elected President with a 2-term (@4yr) limit. Has no veto, but considerable informal powers that seem like those of the US presidency (Since 2013 = Hassan Rouhani; before that = Mahmoud Ahmandinejad) Will the presidency disappear? Sometimes there are threats. The Parliament (The Majilis) 265 FPTP districts Can pass legislation, but… No political parties allowed in Iran (one way to control the pol. opposition is to divide it) The Expediency Council: Sort of a second Supreme Court

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN? Is Iran all that revolutionary or totalitarian these days? Actually, there are strong revolutionar., autho-natl., and liberal forces Why do religious conservatives still have so much support? The US, patronage, & history Is oil a blessing or a curse of oil on Iran’s democratic potential? Is the Supreme Leader all that conservative? The debate over Islam’s relationship with the state and with democracy Will young people lead a counter revolution? Institutional change? What to make of Ahmadinejad over the long run (his power, his populism, his non-cleric status & his ties to the rev. guards)?