Week 7 The New Cold War?

What are Russian threat perceptions? Security – internal and external Control of resources Russia’s defence capability Technological lag behind the West Negative demography

What is the US perspective of Russia? Help Russia become a “normal” country Prevent Russia from acting as a counterbalance (as a member of coalitions) Control Russia’ behaviour to keep it congruent with US interests Expand US influence into the post-Soviet space

Where will Russia be in 2025? The 2008 US National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2025 described Russia as one of four rising centers of international power: “In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way — roughly from West to East — is without precedent in modern history . . . No other countries are projected to rise to the level of China, India, or Russia, and none is likely to match their individual global clout . . . . Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050.”

Putinism Returned Russia to the rank of major international actors through: repairing state capacity; consolidating capitalism; and, protecting from internal challenges

Has democracy betrayed the voter? (as what Putin’s ‘orderism’ claims) It’s a worldview that has become increasingly clear through the Putin era, via a mosaic of public political statements, off-the-record conversations with academics and intelligence insights. Jochen Bittner calls it as “orderism.” Orderism has started to challenge democracy in many parts of the world — Turkey, Poland, the Philippines.

What are the political premises of orderism? Liberal democracy & international law have not lived up to their promise Open borders and global trade have led to vanishing jobs and mass migration…a mental borderlessness has shaken liberal societies International law is beaten into submission by the rules of the strongest The rule of law and liberal multilateralism are just Trojan horses

What is an act of self-defense for Russia? (in the orderist worldview) To increase military spending; Primacy of national interests - to secure the Crimean Peninsula, with its sprawling Russian Navy port; Claim for “special interests” in the post-Soviet space - to hold frequent military exercises along the Russian-NATO borders. Multi-vector foreign policy – active engagement with other international actors

Stability over democracy? Orderism prioritizes stability over democracy and offers an alternative to the moral abyss of laissez-faire societies. Russia stands as a model for this new social contract. Huntington (1968): effectiveness is more important than democracy

Why orderism is appealing? Many have suffered dislocation and anomie under liberal democracy. Orderism believes that: ‘…Just as the West contained an aggressive East in the 20th century, the East must now contain a megalomaniac and arrogant West to prevent the spread of even more chaos.’

Is the official face of orderism hides something much darker? Just as the utopian promises of Communism were merely a fig leaf for tyranny Order is attractive only until it stifles, and then represses. Unchecked autocrats turn on the weakest and most vulnerable as scapegoats, and lash out in foreign misadventures to divert attention from problems at home. Society breaks down; fear reigns. Orderism ultimately fails to deliver on its own promises.

How compatible orderism is with the attitudes of many voters in the US and EU? Trump’s campaign boils down to a promise of tough order The decision of British voters to leave the EU

How to tackle orderism? Part of the difficulty in dealing with orderism is that it is ideological without being an ideology. Western leaders must respond to criticisms of liberal democracy, not simply reject them as the product of an insidious, anti-liberal worldview. It is mercurial, pragmatic and cynical; its meaning and values change to fit the circumstances.