Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351 Brad Hunter Chief Economist (561) 835-9235 (561) 573-8351 South Florida Housing Market Current Conditions and Forecast.

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Presentation transcript:

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Brad Hunter Chief Economist (561) (561) South Florida Housing Market Current Conditions and Forecast April 21, 2009

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) The Main Factor that is Keeping the Economy Depressed (Locally and Nationally)….? Falling Home Prices Talk about a double-edged sword! We want affordable market-priced housing, but it is a painful adjustment!

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) South Florida Housing Production is Effectively Zero Absorption Has Fallen Too

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) New Home Inventories Are Coming Down (which would normally relieve some downward price pressure)…

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) …But South Florida Job Losses Continue to Erode Incomes and Confidence

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) New Home Inventories By County

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) The Biggest Source of Downward Price Pressure 2009 and 2010? R.E.O.

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561)

Option-ARM Recasts will Trigger the Next Wave of Foreclosures in late 2009 Source: Business Week/Credit Suisse

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Miami-Dade County Single Family Median Resale Home Prices ?

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Broward County Single Family Median Resale Home Prices ?

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami Source: Wikipedia

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Quarterly Condominium Starts: Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami Note: Conversions Not Included

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Condo Inventory Comparison: Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami Note: Conversions Not Included

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Quarterly Single Family Starts: Miami-Dade County vs. South Dade* * South of SW 184 th Street

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Single Family Finished Vacant Inventory: Miami-Dade County vs. South Dade

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) Condos

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) The Good Ole Days (Way back in 2004) Projects sold out in a weekend People camped out to be first in line There was Panic Buying! Same group of investors often rolled from one to the next Some projects sold first 50% to investor groups who bought in bulk at a discounted day-one price

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561)

Condominium Units Started in Downtown Miami by Quarter The Spike represents sales from 2004/early 05…

Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) About the Presenter Brad Hunter, Chief Economist/National Director of Consulting Brad Hunter spearheads Metrostudys current work with the investment community and national developer/builder clients. A large part of his work lately has been with private equity funds, hedge funds, and pension fund advisors. He supervises the bulk of the companys multi-market studies, and has orchestrated hundreds of site-specific or area-specific housing market studies over the past twenty-plus years. Metrostudy is the nations premier advisor on local and regional housing market conditions. With 23 years worth of experience in real estate analysis and local market economic forecasting, Mr. Hunter is a Full Member of the Urban Land Institute, has authored numerous articles and book chapters for ULI, including Market Profiles, and serves on the Housing Market Forecast Panel for the Housing Market Report. He is regularly cited in local and national journals, and has recently been featured in the Wall Street Journal and on Bloomberg News (including Bloombergs On the Money and On the Economy radio shows). He graduated in 1985 from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in economics and has been a guest lecturer at Harvard University. Hunter is a speaker at conferences on real estate opportunities and investing, as well as at ULI conferences, and is frequently called upon by key regulatory agencies of the U.S. government for his insights on the housing sector. Hunter has tracked and forecast housing markets and demographic/economic trends at the local level for 23 years.