中央大學.資訊管理系 范錚強 mailto: ckfarn@mgt.ncu.edu.tw 2013.05 updated 11 Sampling 抽樣 中央大學.資訊管理系 范錚強 mailto: ckfarn@mgt.ncu.edu.tw 2013.05 updated

The Nature of Sampling Sampling Population Element Population Census Sampling frame The basic idea of sampling is that by selecting some of the elements in a population, we may draw conclusions about the entire population. A population element is the individual participant or object on which the measurement is taken. It is the unit of study. It may be a person but it could also be any object of interest. A population is the total collection of elements about which we wish to make some inferences. A census is a count of all the elements in a population. A sample frame is the listing of all population elements from which the sample will be drawn. 中央資管：范錚強

Availability of elements Why Sample? Availability of elements Lower cost Sampling provides Greater speed Greater accuracy This slide lists the reasons researchers use a sample rather than a census. 中央資管：范錚強

When Is a Census Appropriate? Feasible Necessary The advantages of sampling over census studies are less compelling when the population is small and the variability within the population is high. Two conditions are appropriate for a census study. A census is feasible when the population is small and necessary when the elements are quite different from each other. 中央資管：范錚強

What Is a Valid Sample? Accurate Precise _ m 和 x 的差異 沒有偏誤 中央資管：范錚強 The ultimate test of a sample design is how well it represents the characteristics of the population it purports to represent. In measurement terms, the sample must be valid. Validity of a sample depends on two considerations: accuracy and precision. Here a sample is being taken of water, using a can suspended on a fishing line. Accuracy is the degree to which bias is absent from the sample. When the sample is drawn properly, the measure of behavior, attitudes, or knowledge of some sample elements will be less than the measure of those same variables drawn from the population. The measure of other sample elements will be more than the population values. Variations in these sample values offset each other, resulting in a sample value that is close to the population value. For these offsetting effects to occur, there must be enough elements in the sample and they must be drawn in a way that favors neither overestimation nor underestimation. Increasing the sample size can reduce systematic variance as a cause of error. Systematic variance is a variation that causes measurements to skew in one direction or another. Precision of estimate is the second criterion of a good sample design. The numerical descriptors that describe samples may be expected to differ from those that describe populations because of random fluctuations inherent in the sampling process. This is called sampling error and reflects the influence of chance in drawing the sample members. Sampling error is what is left after all known sources of systematic variance have been accounted for. Precision is measured by the standard error of estimate, a type of standard deviation measurement. The smaller the standard error of the estimate, the higher is the precision of the sample. 中央資管：范錚強

外部效度 External Validity 目標母體 正式描述 實際達成的母體 規劃樣本 實際達成的樣本 中央資管：范錚強

Types of Sampling Designs Element Selection Probability Nonprobability Unrestricted Simple random Convenience 便利 Restricted Complex random Purposive 立意 Systematic Judgment Cluster Quota Stratified Snowball Double Exhibit 14-2 The members of a sample are selected using probability or nonprobability procedures. Nonprobability sampling is an arbitrary and subjective sampling procedure where each population element does not have a known, nonzero chance of being included. Probability sampling is a controlled, randomized procedure that assures that each population element is given a known, nonzero chance of selection. 中央資管：范錚強

Steps in Sampling Design What is the target population? What are the parameters of interest? What is the sampling frame? What is the appropriate sampling method? This slide addresses the steps in sampling design. What size sample is needed? 中央資管：范錚強

When to Use Larger Sample Sizes? Desired precision Number of subgroups Confidence level Population variance Small error range The greater the dispersion or variance within the population, the larger the sample must be to provide estimation precision. The greater the desired precision of the estimate, the larger the sample must be. The narrower or smaller the error range, the larger the sample must be. The higher the confidence level in the estimate, the larger the sample must be. The greater the number of subgroups of interest within a sample, the greater the sample size must be, as each subgroup must meet minimum sample size requirements. Cost considerations influence decisions about the size and type of sample and the data collection methods. A cheese factory is pictured here. Ask students if taking a sample would require a large or small sample of the output and what would influence their answer. 中央資管：范錚強

Simple Random Advantages Easy to implement with random dialing Disadvantages Requires list of population elements Time consuming Uses larger sample sizes Produces larger errors High cost In drawing a sample with simple random sampling, each population element has an equal chance of being selected into the samples. The sample is drawn using a random number table or generator. This slide shows the advantages and disadvantages of using this method. The probability of selection is equal to the sample size divided by the population size. Exhibit 14-6 covers how to choose a random sample. The steps are as follows: Assign each element within the sampling frame a unique number. Identify a random start from the random number table. Determine how the digits in the random number table will be assigned to the sampling frame. Select the sample elements from the sampling frame. 中央資管：范錚強

Systematic Advantages Disadvantages Simple to design Easier than simple random Easy to determine sampling distribution of mean or proportion Disadvantages Periodicity within population may skew sample and results Trends in list may bias results Moderate cost In drawing a sample with systematic sampling, an element of the population is selected at the beginning with a random start and then every Kth element is selected until the appropriate size is selected. The kth element is the skip interval, the interval between sample elements drawn from a sample frame in systematic sampling. It is determined by dividing the population size by the sample size. To draw a systematic sample, the steps are as follows: Identify, list, and number the elements in the population Identify the skip interval Identify the random start Draw a sample by choosing every kth entry. To protect against subtle biases, the research can Randomize the population before sampling, Change the random start several times in the process, and Replicate a selection of different samples. 中央資管：范錚強

Stratified Advantages Disadvantages Control of sample size in strata Increased statistical efficiency Provides data to represent and analyze subgroups Enables use of different methods in strata Disadvantages Increased error will result if subgroups are selected at different rates Especially expensive if strata on population must be created High cost In drawing a sample with stratified sampling, the population is divided into subpopulations or strata and uses simple random on each strata. Results may be weighted or combined. The cost is high. Stratified sampling may be proportion or disproportionate. In proportionate stratified sampling, each stratum’s size is proportionate to the stratum’s share of the population. Any stratification that departs from the proportionate relationship is disproportionate. 中央資管：范錚強

Cluster Disadvantages Advantages Provides an unbiased estimate of population parameters if properly done Economically more efficient than simple random Lowest cost per sample Easy to do without list Disadvantages Often lower statistical efficiency due to subgroups being homogeneous rather than heterogeneous Moderate cost In drawing a sample with cluster sampling, the population is divided into internally heterogeneous subgroups. Some are randomly selected for further study. Two conditions foster the use of cluster sampling: the need for more economic efficiency than can be provided by simple random sampling, and 2) the frequent unavailability of a practical sampling frame for individual elements. Exhibit 14-7 provides a comparison of stratified and cluster sampling and is highlighted on the next slide. Several questions must be answered when designing cluster samples. How homogeneous are the resulting clusters? Shall we seek equal-sized or unequal-sized clusters? How large a cluster shall we take? Shall we use a single-stage or multistage cluster? How large a sample is needed? 中央資管：范錚強

Stratified and Cluster Sampling Population divided into few subgroups Homogeneity within subgroups Heterogeneity between subgroups Choice of elements from within each subgroup Cluster Population divided into many subgroups Heterogeneity within subgroups Homogeneity between subgroups Random choice of subgroups Exhibit 14-7 中央資管：范錚強

Nonprobability Samples No need to generalize Feasibility Limited objectives Time Cost With a subjective approach like nonprobability sampling, the probability of selecting population elements is unknown. There is a greater opportunity for bias to enter the sample and distort findings. We cannot estimate any range within which to expect the population parameter. Despite these disadvantages, there are practical reasons to use nonprobability samples. When the research does not require generalization to a population parameter, then there is no need to ensure that the sample fully reflects the population. The researcher may have limited objectives such as those in exploratory research. It is less expensive to use nonprobability sampling. It also requires less time. Finally, a list may not be available. 中央資管：范錚強

Nonprobability Sampling Methods Convenience Judgment Quota Snowball Convenience samples are nonprobability samples where the element selection is based on ease of accessibility. They are the least reliable but cheapest and easiest to conduct. Examples include informal pools of friends and neighbors, people responding to an advertised invitation, and “on the street” interviews. Judgment sampling is purposive sampling where the researcher arbitrarily selects sample units to conform to some criterion. This is appropriate for the early stages of an exploratory study. Quota sampling is also a type of purposive sampling. In this type, relevant characteristics are used to stratify the sample which should improve its representativeness. The logic behind quota sampling is that certain relevant characteristics describe the dimensions of the population. In most quota samples, researchers specify more than one control dimension. Each dimension should have a distribution in the population that can be estimated and be pertinent to the topic studied. Snowball sampling means that subsequent participants are referred by the current sample elements. This is useful when respondents are difficult to identify and best located through referral networks. It is also used frequently in qualitative studies. 中央資管：范錚強

特殊的設計考量 你的對象 個人？ 企業？ 企業裡的個人 誰？ 是否能代表企業？ 中央資管：范錚強

複雜的設計 有一些構念是企業（團對、組織…） 有一些構念是個人 Matching 甚至是不同的個人 事後配對 事前配對 發給 CEO 和 CIO，針對回卷比對 事前配對 設計時就想好如何搭配 中央資管：范錚強