THE ENERGY SCENARIO IN INDIA Prof. S.P. Sukhatme Chairman Atomic Energy Regulatory Board Mumbai Lecture at Dhirubhai Ambani Institute of Information and Communication Technology March 26, 2004

THE ENERGY SCENARIO IN INDIA Introduction India’s Production, Consumption and Reserves of Commercial Energy Sources - Fossil Fuels - Hydroelectric Power - Nuclear Power Observations - The Need for Energy Conservation - The Need for Alternative Sources 4. Concluding Remarks

India’s Production, Consumption and Reserves of Commercial Energy Sources Fossil Fuels - Coal - Oil - Natural Gas Supply more than 90 percent of India’s consumption of commercial energy

ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF COAL IN INDIA

EXPECTED TREND IN THE PRODUCTION RATE OF A NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE

Coal Reserves in India (in Mt) Year Proved Indicated and Resources reserves inferred reserves 21,360 59,590 80,950 27,912 87,490 115,402 35,030 120,870 155,900 64,800 129,000 193,800 68,000 128,900 196,900 72,730 131,920 204,650 Source : Geological Survey of India Using the variation shown in the previous figure, estimates have been made of the time when the production would pass through a maximum. These show that coal production in India may be expected to peak between AD 2040 and 2080.

ANNUAL PRODUCTION, IMPORT AND CONSUMPTION OF OIL IN INDIA

Oil Reserves in India The position regarding reserves is rather uncertain. Proved recoverable reserves were estimated to be around 800 Mt in 1992. Extensive prospecting is in progress and there are hopes that more oil will be discovered off-shore. How Long Will Our Oil Reserves Last? In the event that no substantial discoveries are made, the position is quite serious. The present domestic production cannot be sustained for more than 25 years.

ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS IN INDIA

How Long Will Gas Reserves Last? Natural Gas Reserves in India Proved recoverable reserves of natural gas were estimated to be 735 billion cu.m. in 1992. Major gas fields have been discovered since then. Last year gas reserves of about 230 billion cu.m. have been discovered off the Andhra Pradesh coast. Possibilities of finding more gas reserves are good. How Long Will Gas Reserves Last? Present indications are that the annual production of gas will increase and that the reserves will last much longer than oil.

Installed Hydro-electric Power Capacity and Electricity Produced in India Year Installed Electricity Capacity (MW) produced (GWh) 560 1961 1,917 1966 4,090 1969 5,910 1976 9,115 1980 11,794 46,557 1985 15,715 58,001 1990 18,590 67,089 1994 20,366 70,375 21,900 73,500 22,438 2000 76,580

The hydro-electric power potential has been estimated to be 150,000 MW The hydro-electric power potential has been estimated to be 150,000 MW. A significant part of this potential is in the north and north-east. Small Hydro-electric Power Schemes Potential : 6800 MW in 1500 locations Installed : 350 MW

Installed Nuclear Power In India (2003) Location Capacity (MW) Tarapur (Maharashtra) 2 x 160 = 320 Rawatbhata (Rajasthan) 100+200 = 300 Kalpakkam (Tamil Nadu) 2 x 170 = 340 Narora (Uttar Pradesh) 2 x 220 = 440 Kakrapara (Gujarat) 2 x 220 = 440 Kaiga (Karnataka) 2 x 220 = 440 Rawatbhata (Rajasthan) 2 x 220 = 440 Total : 2720 MW

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FROM NUCLEAR POWER IN INDIA

Nuclear Power Projects Location Capacity (MW) Tarapur 2 x 540 = 1080 Kaiga 2 x 220 = 440 Rana Pratap Sagar 2 x 220 = 440 Kudankulam 2 x 1000 = 2000 Kalpakkam 1 x 500 = 500 Total : 4460 Second largest construction programme in the world.

Uranium Reserves in India Very modest reserves. It is estimated that proved recoverable reserves are around 50000 t with perhaps another 20000 t of recoverable resources. How Long Will Our Uranium Reserves Last? The proved recoverable reserves would only be adequate for providing the requirements of an installed capacity of 10000 MW for about 30 years, i.e. 300 GW-yr, (if the present technology continues to be used). Present technology uses only the energy obtained from the fission of the U235 isotope in natural uranium.

ELECTRICAL POWER – INSTALLED CAPACITY (Approximate) Thermal 70,000 MW Hydro 25,000 Nuclear 2,700 Wind 1,500 Total : 100,000 MW

India USA Electricity production 533 x 109 3719 x 109 in 2001 ( kWh) Approx. annual per 500 12000 capita consumption of electricity (kWh/yr)

OBSERVATIONS Fossil Fuels 1. The domestic production of crude oil may not increase much. On the other hand, the production of natural gas is still increasing. Present indications are that most of the reserves of oil are likely to be consumed in another 25 years. Gas may last a little longer. 2. As oil and natural gas become scarcer, a greater burden will fall on coal. It is likely that the production of coal will touch a maximum somewhere between the years 2040 and 2080 and that 80 to 90 percent of the amount available could be consumed by AD 2250.

3. It should also be noted that in addition to supplying energy, fossil fuels are used extensively as feedstock material for the manufacture of organic chemicals. As reserves deplete, the need for using fossil fuels exclusively for such purposes may become greater.

Hydro-electric Power There is considerable scope for increasing the capacity of hydro-electric power. Hydro-electric power is indirectly obtained from solar energy and has the advantage of being a renewable source. Nuclear Power The position regarding uranium is serious if we continue to use it as at present, that is use only the U235 isotope.

It is thus fairly evident that the need exists for - conserving energy with the use of proper management practices. developing energy efficient products, systems and processes developing alternative energy sources. While developing energy alternatives, the immediate concern would be to alleviate the problems caused by the depletion of oil and natural gas, while the long term need would be to develop means to replace presently used nuclear fission technology and then coal.

ENERGY ALTERNATIVES (Primary Sources) The Solar Option (Direct and Indirect Methods) The Nuclear Option (Breeder Reactor, Nuclear Fusion) Other Alternatives (Tar Sands, Oil Shale, Coal Based Methane, Gas Hydrates, Tidal Energy, Geothermal Energy)

The Solar Option A very large, inexhaustible source of energy. The power from the sun intercepted by the earth is 1.8 x 1011 MW which is thousands of times larger than the present consumption rate. Advantages : Environmentally clean Free Disadvantages : Dilute source of energy Not available continuously

Methods of Solar Energy Utilization Direct Methods - Thermal - Photovoltaic When used directly, one needs large collecting areas and storage systems. Thus the initial capital cost of direct solar systems is high.

Indirect Methods - Hydroelectric power - Wind - Biomass - Wave energy - Ocean temperature differences The solar option can make a significant impact only through the indirect route because then nature does the job of collecting and storing the energy.

The Nuclear Option The Breeder Reactor Composition of naturally occuring uranium U234 0.006% U235 0.711% U238 99.283% U235 is the only naturally occuring fissile material. Nuclear reactors in commercial operation today use only the U235 isotope. Thus the abundant U238 isotope is waste.

U238 is called a fertile material. It can be converted into a fissile material, plutonium Similarly Th232 is also a fertile material. It can be converted into a fissile material, U233. These are called breeder reactions.

BREEDER REACTIONS OF U238 AND Th232

For India, the thorium 232 to uranium 233 breeder reaction is of significance because we have large deposits of thorium. These could yield about 300,000 GW-yr. In India, a Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR) has been commissioned. The reactor is cooled by liquid sodium and uses plutonium-uranium carbide fuel. It has been operated at 8 MW (thermal) and has generated electrical power. The successful operation of the FBTR is being followed by the construction of a 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor.

Nuclear Fusion Energy is released by joining very light atoms. If research on controlled fusion is eventually successful and fusion reactors are built, they could provide the solution to the world’s energy problem. The reactions of interest involve the fusing of the heavy isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium D and tritium T) into the next heavier elements, viz. helium 6D 2 4 He + 2p + 2n + 43.1 MeV Deuterium occurs naturally in sea water in essentially inexhaustible quantities.

Key problems in the development of a nuclear fusion reactor are the attainment of the required high temperature by initially heating the fuel charge and the confinement of the heated fuel for a long enough time for the reaction to become self-sustaining. Controlled fusion – Still a dream

Magnitudes of Energy Alternatives The energy alternatives described can be broadly classified in terms of their magnitude into three categories. Very large Large Relatively small

A Comparison of Energy Alternatives in Terms of their Magnitudes Category Source Very large Nuclear fusion Large Solar energy – Indirect Breeder reactor Oil shale Tar sands Coal Based Methane Gas Hydrates Relatively Solar energy – Direct small Tidal energy Geothermal energy

CONCLUDING REMARKS The Fossil Fuel Era – A Blip in Time Concerns about the Environment The Need for a Simpler Life Style

“There is enough on this earth to meet every man’s needs, but not enough to meet every man’s greed.” - Mahatma Gandhi