Evaluating NOx Emission Inventories in North America and Beyond

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Presentation transcript:

Evaluating NOx Emission Inventories in North America and Beyond Randall Martin Aaron Van Donkelaar Chris Sioris Kelly Chance Yongtao Hu Armistead Russell Tom Ryerson Bill Brune Jack Dibb Ron Cohen UC Berkeley

Cloud-filtered Tropospheric NO2 Columns Observed from the SCIAMACHY Satellite Instrument (Data  ICARTT) May-Oct 2004 detection limit

EMIS: Emissions Mapping Integration Science Optimize North American NOx Emissions SCIAMACHY NO2 Columns NOx Emissions (SMOKE/G.Tech) May-Oct 2004 Aug 2004 A priori emissions (SMOKE/Russell) 1015 molecules cm-2 1011 molec N cm-2 s-1 CMAQ GEOS-CHEM Error weighting Top-Down Emissions A posteriori emissions

North American NOx Emissions (May – October) Largest Change in Northeastern US Coast GEOS-CHEM (NAPAP Scaled to 1998) SCIAMACHY (2004) SCIAMACHY - NAPAP 1011 atoms N cm-2 s-1 1011 atoms N cm-2 s-1 1011 atoms N cm-2 s-1 r2 = 0.85 7.6 Tg N 8.4 Tg N 0.8 Tg N

Evaluate Top-Down and Bottom-Up NOx Inventories Conduct GEOS-CHEM Simulation For Each Inventory Sampled GEOS-CHEM Along Flight Tracks Simulation with SCIAMACHY – Original NOx Emission Inventory NOx (ppbv) HNO3 (ppbv)

P-3 Measurements Support Top-Down Inventory DC-8 Measurements Inconclusive New England New England + Gulf Remote In Situ GEOS-CHEM (Top-Down) GEOS-CHEM (Bottom-up)

Major Discrepancy in NOx Emissions from Megacities 48 Tg N May-Oct 2004 Most Recent Edgar Emissions for 1995 48 - 38 Tg N GEIA 1998

SCIAMACHY Shows Elevated NOx Export from North America SCIAMACHY NO2 (1015 molec cm-2) May-Oct 2004 GEOS-CHEM NO2 (1015 molec cm-2) May-Oct 2004

Explained by Model Bias in Upper Tropospheric NOx West of -60 degrees lon, “land” East of -60 degrees lon, “ocean” GEOS-CHEM NO2 Cohen NO2 GEOS-CHEM low by factor of 2 in column GEOS-CHEM low by 7.5% in column AMF too low by 15% GEOS-CHEM NO Brune NO Errorbars Show 17th and 83rd percentiles