Start Hot-Start Section 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Recent LAPS Analysis Improvements Added new data ingest routines Radiometers MADIS (mesonet, aircraft) Improved Determination of multi-Doppler winds Independent of radar order (CWB collaboration) Increased ROC domain wideband (Lvl-II) radars to 13 Improved derivation of cloud vertical velocities (CWB collaboration) 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Cloud vertical motion Important for 0- to 12-hour forecast using Hot Start Cloud vertical motion tuning Fall velocity dependence Improved cloud-type dependence Randomly specified updrafts 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Result: Laps analysis 20-14-3: Same as 20-14-2 but redefined convective and stratiform region 20-14-4: Same as 20-14-3 but did not site downward motion in stratiform region 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Recent LAPS Analysis Improvements (cont) Corrected vertical temperature bias in balance package Began testing improved balance scheme, incorporating thermodynamic terms New Fire Wx Grids (Haines Index) Numerous other miscellaneous improvements 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Recent MM5 Forecast Improvements SST input from GFS Provides better forecasts than climo or “pseudo-SST” Provides a first guess for LAPS SST analysis Added TKE diagnosis to post-processor Allows use of better MRF PBL while still meeting need for TKE field for HYPACT integration Switched PBL scheme to MRF Reduced surface T RMSE and bias by 1-2K Implemented new Schultz II microphysics Deactivated K-F cumulus parameterization 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

0-3 h QPF Verification 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

0-6 h QPF Verification 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

0-12 h QPF Verification 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

JAX WRF QPF Verification 0600 UTC +3, 6, and 9-h QPF Verification, 1 Oct 03 thru 4 May 04 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Cape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar Verification 9 Feb 04

End Hot-Start Section 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Start RSA Section 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

System Design Review Basic requirements Trades considered New 24-h forecast every 6 hours High spatial resolution (1 km objective) Support launch weather operations and range safety requirements for dispersion modeling Integrate with display system (AWIPS) Trades considered Size of domain and nesting options Forecast length vs. scale predictability Computational resources vs. cost-benefit Future upgrade path 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Basic Solution LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP model Use diabatic initialization (“hot start”) Utilize parallel code on Linux cluster Integrate with AWIPS in a modular fashion 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

AWIPS Integration NOAAPORT LDAD Obs/Radar/Sat/NCEP LAPS Anal/Fcst Grids AWIPS Data Server AWIPS Workstation Modeling Server 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Hardware Configuration Linux Cluster Modeling Server 1 master/8 compute nodes (18 processors) Dual P-III 1GHz, 1GB RAM on each node 60GB RAID array on front-end Myrinet inter-connect Interacts with AWIPS DS via NFS LAPS analyses and 2-h MM5 update forecast run on master node 6-hourly MM5 and post-processing use compute nodes 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

LAPS Domain Configuration Triple Nest Domain 97x97 10.0/3.3/1.1 km x 10km for Model Init 3.3/1.1 for NowCasting LAPS Runs Hourly analyses 41 Pressure levels Runs at H+20 min Available at H+30 min WR ER 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

RSA LAPS Data Sources National Data (NOAAPORT SBN Feed) Eta (Grids 211, 212, and 215) Regional narrowband WSR-88D reflectivity GOES imagery (Vis, SWIR, 2 LWIR) MDCARS RAOBs METARs/Ship Reports/Buoys National Profiler Network 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

RSA LAPS Data Sources Sea Surface Temperature Data NCEP internet FTP feed GFS model 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

RSA LAPS Data Sources Local Data (via LDAD) Local wideband WSR-88D (Z and Vr) Local ASOS Observations 50/915 MHz Wind Profilers MiniSODAR Wind Profiles RASS Tower observations AMPS Soundings Local MM5 forecast grids 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

MM5 Forecast Model Two configurations for RSA “Update” run to provide first guess for LAPS Used for “downscaling” national model Runs every hour out to 2 h on master node (serial) Initialized with national first guess (Eta forecast) and NCEP SST Domain 1 (10km) only Not displayed on AWIPS Forecast run used for operational forecasts Diabatically intialized with LAPS Runs every 6 hours Triple nest (10/3/1.1) with forecasts out to 24/12/9 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

MM5 Forecast Model MM5 v3 used for RSA application Upgraded to release 3.5 in June 2002 FSL modifications for diabatic initialization FSL-developed runs scripts suitable for operations Concurrent post-processing Supports multiple output formats Allows viewing on workstation as model runs Hourly temporal output 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

MM5 Run Configuration (Development System Config) 30-second timestep MRF PBL Scheme Explicit Schultz II microphysics on all domains 2-way feedback between nests Domain 1 initialized with LAPS (diabatic) Domains 2 and 3 interpolated from parent Lateral boundaries provided by NCEP Eta 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

Vertical Level Configuration 41 s Levels 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

LAPS-MM5 Production Cycle MM5 Forecast (Every 6 h) - 10km to 24h - 3.3 to 12h - 1.1 to 9h National Model Forecast (Eta via SBN) Lateral Boundary Conditions 2-9 h Forecast for IC/LBC Hourly Cycle MM5 Update Cycle (10km) 1-h Forecast for First Guess Diabatic Init. Cond. 10-km LAPS Analysis 3.3-km LAPS Analysis 1.1-km LAPS Analysis Observations via SBN and LDAD 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

End RSA Section 15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO