Forecast verification at the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia Lovro Kalin.

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Presentation transcript:

Forecast verification at the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia Lovro Kalin

Forecasting Department cca 15 forecasters daily shifts (5-19 h) Various customers: Government, Civil Protection, Media: TV, radio, newspapers, web Special customers: Electric company, Road Service, Railways, Fire Protection, Water Management etc. Short to long range (nowcasting to seasonal)

Verification section Goal mainly to verify Department’s forecast Also models (ECMWF, Aladin) Point-to-point method (usually synop data against nearest grid point of the model) Operational and on-demand (seasonal, annual) Annual report for the ECMWF “Green Book”

operational

monthly report

temperature

temperature

Forest fire danger Daily forecast for Canadian Forest fire index (FWI) For 24 stations, for the following day For Day+2 derived from Aladin (DMO) Special warnings Long-range fire danger forecast

Forest fire danger

warnings Increased in recent years Verification methods - spurious General warning for the Civil Protection Fire Protection special warning Maritime warning of the Maritime Branch (Split) Meteoalarm Energy company Heat waves Verification methods - spurious

Heat waves Since 2012 In cooperation with Ministry of Health Daily for 4 days in advance 8 Croatian cities (regions) 4 levels: GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED very good public reception

2-m max. temperature verification (Zagreb, year 2014.)

precipitation forecast

ECMWF seasonal forecast verification

drought prediction SPI1<-1 SPI3comb <-1 SPI3<-1 based on ECMWF seasonal forecast Standardized Precipitation Index - SPI introduction to operational fc in 2016 L. Kalin, K. Cindrić, D. Mihajlović, B. Matjačić. 2015: Possibilities on drought forecasting in Croatia. Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing, 267-271