Tobacco taxation in 7 Western Balkan countries, stakeholders and trends  Jovan Zubović, PhD Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade Workshop on Tobacco Economics for Central and Eastern Europe Warsaw, 8-10May 2018

Project objectives The research The policy dialogue includes 7 national research projects and 1 regional comparative study with a focus on the socio-economic effects of tobacco tax increases  The policy dialogue aims at putting tobacco taxation issues on the policy agenda in the region and producing recommendations that will result in sustainable and systemic policy impact

Research Area Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Montenegro Serbia

Research group Center for project management and enterpreneurship, Faculty of Economics, University of Banja Luka

Stakeholders Mapping Serbia Albania Montenegro Croatia Bosnia & Herzegovina Kosovo Macedonia   I P V Policy makers 3,5 5 2 4,5 4,3 4,2 4 3,3 3,4 4,7 3,7 Industry 4,6 3 1,5 2,5 2,8 Researchers 2,3 1,7 1 2,9 2,4 Others 2,6 3,6 I – Interest in tobacco taxation policy, P – Power in tobacco taxation policy creation; V – Value (impact) on our project

Stakeholders MAP S K A S MK Policy makers Industry Researchers Others MN C B K MK - Power A MN C B K MK S Policy makers Industry Researchers Others S A MN C K MK B S A MN C B K MK Interest

Regional Map I P V Policy makers 4,1 3,4 Industry 3,8 2,7 2,6 Power Interest   I P V Policy makers 4,1 3,4 Industry 3,8 2,7 2,6 Researchers 3,2 2,3 2,4 Others 3,6 2,5

Stakeholders’ power SER ALB MNE CRO B&H KS MKD Policy makers Mapped 34   SER ALB MNE CRO B&H KS MKD Policy makers Mapped 34 38 33 26 48 36 Real 55-70 45-60 65 60-80 70-80 40-50 Desired 55 50 Industry 21 17 24 31 25 27 20-25 15-25 20 20-30 30 10 Researchers 19 22 18 2-10 5-15 5 0-10 15 Others 28 5-10

Exise rates Albania Kosovo B&H Montenegro Macedonia Croatia Serbia YEAR 17 14 12 Specific exise (€ pp) 0,89 0,64 0,5 0,84 0,54 0,68 0,45 0,6 0,38 0,3 0,44 0,83 0,55 0,48 65,5 47 45 Ad Valorem excise % 42 32 35 36 33 34 37 Average duty rate % 10   15 VAT % 18 16 20 Total tax (% of retail) 66,6 64 61,2 65,6 64,4 69 72,9 67,7 63,2 79,5 73,5 75 73,9 69,8 68 80 76 72 78,5 73,7

Total tax % of retail price

Excise (in €) per 1000 cigarettes

Prevalence rates (2000, 2005,2010, 2012, 2015) Male Female Source: WHO estimates

Thank you for attention ! tobaccotaxation.org