Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed Presentation to GB/PS Research Conference John Newhook / Derek Jennejohn April 1, 2003 Good Morning everyone. We will report to our Political Committee on April 9 with a presentation the emission trend analysis and forecast - so you are the first to see it.. The final forecast report is expected to be completed within the next 2months I would like to acknowledge Derek Jennejohn and Shelina Sidi – 2 of our key emission inventory engineers – who are here today, and whom I will call upon to answer difficult questions.

Why do we do Emission Inventories & Forecasts? Air Quality Management is mandated to GVRD by the BC Waste Management Act Tells us where we have been (progress evaluation), and where we are heading Identifies Major Sources -- AQ Goals Used by AQ Modellers at Environment Canada to forecast future Air Quality Fundamental basis for an updated AQMP

Lower Fraser Valley Airshed

This, and the following charts, indicate trends in emissions from each of the three political regions of the LFV, with the uppermost line being the sum of the other three. CO emissions show decline from 1990 to 2005, then level off. Partly due to fact that new 2004 federal LDV emission standards do not require as much reduction in CO as other contaminants. The GVRD is the principal emitter Major source in all years is LDV. Other nonroad equipment (construction, agriculture, lawn & garden, etc) has increasingly larger % in future years Increase in 2010 is due to expiration of the AirCare contract – no emission reduction estimates have yet been done for the post-2007 AirCare program, as we don’t know what it will look like.

NOx – again, the GVRD is the principal emitter NOx declines from 1990 through to 2020, but then starts upward trend Mobile sources are main contributors, increasingly led by marine vessel sources in future years Extra info: Increase from 1985 to 1990 was from space heating emissions as well as cement plants. Trend shifts to a decreasing one after 1990 because of AirCare and improved vehicle emission standards

VOC emissions show decline from 1990 to 2005, then level off. Unlike most other contaminants, VOC emissions have large contribution from the FVRD & Whatcom County – largely natural sources. Aside from natural sources, main contributor in 2025 is solvent evaporation, which takes over from LDV in 2010. Environment Canada has recently notified us of the Federal Agenda for Reducing VOC Emissions from Consumer and Commercial Products. This should reduce future VOC emissions, but not enough info available to us at present to quantify.

SOx emissions decline to 2000, then show upward trend to 2025 Whatcom County & GVRD are almost “equal partners” in SOx emissions. GVRD -- marine vessels. Whatcom -- 2 refineries and 1 aluminum smelter Future trend includes a drop in emissions as a result of low-S gasoline and diesel, but these emission reductions are overtaken by marine vessel increases Extra info: GVRD emissions decline to 2000 largely due to reduced emissions at cement plants and refineries. Future increase in GVRD emissions is mainly due to marine vessel emissions

Primary PM-2.5 emissions decrease from 1990 to 2000 (reduced point source and motor vehicle PM-2.5 emissions) Increasing trend from 2000 to 2025. Main contributors are space heating, road dust, non-road mobile sources, and marine vessels. Extra info: Road dust made up about 14% of PM-2.5 emissions in 2000.

GVRD only started inventorying NH3 in 2000 NH3 emissions increase steadily from 2000 FVRD emissions lead GVRD and Whatcom County Agriculture is main contributor. Motor vehicles and miscellaneous sources (pets, humans, refrigerants) play smaller roles

“Smog-Forming Pollutants” 8 Common Air Contaminants inventoried For simplification, we added together 5 air contaminants which contribute to ozone and fine particulate matter formation, and to visibility impairment - SMOG. NOX, SOX, VOC, PM2.5, and NH3

Decrease from 1990 to about 2015, then slight upward trend begins Surprising part is that, after 2005, the graph is relatively flat Earlier (1995) forecasts of emissions were not so “flat” Originally thought that new Vehicles & Fuels Regulations would result in sharper decline But improvements from that sector are being somewhat cancelled out by increase in marine emissions, as well as solvent evaporation and agriculture, as will be indicated in the following slide.

This chart is a bit “busy”, so bear with me a minute. It shows emission trends of SFP’s from the top 5 sources (other than natural sources --- about 38 kilotonnes in 2000) In 2000 and previously, aside from natural sources, main contributors to SFP’s are LDVs (brown), followed by marine vessels (blue) and other nonroad equipment (green). In 2025, marine vessels are the largest source (mainly NOx & SOx), followed by agricultural sources (mainly NH3, some VOC) and other nonroad equipment (mainly NOx & VOC). Decrease in LDV emissions stalls around 2008, due to expiry of AirCare contract Other nonroad equipment (ie other than air, rail, and marine) shows a decrease after 1995 as a result of regulations and reduced S in fuels, but trend turns upward again in 2015 as a result of increased activity Solvent emissions increase steadily from 1995 We would expect that the solvent evaporation and non-road sectors to be reduced more than is indicated here, due to the Federal Governments NOI’s for non road engines and for Reducing VOC Emissions from Consumer and Commercial Products. However, sufficient info was not available to fully account for all of these.Only estimated those “in place” by regulation or MOU. This will probably leave marine vessels and agricultural operations with the “steepest slope” trend lines.

Now let’s look at GHG’s GHG emissions increase through all years in all regions. GVRD shows most rapid increase In 2000, GVRD/FVRD combined emissions are up 24% from 1990. By 2025, the increase is 61% from 1990. Main GVRD contributors are LDVs, space heating, EPG and cement plants Main Whatcom contributors are petroleum refining and EPG Main FVRD contributors are LDVs and space heating Note that proposed new power plants are NOT included in this forecast of emissions

LDVs are main contributor to GHG emissions in all years, followed by space heating and electric power generation. Other contributors are other nonroad equipment, cement plants and refineries. Cement plant emissions are all from GVRD, while majority of refinery emissions are from Whatcom County

Notes & Observations Forecast looks different than previous (1995) version – a little more “flat” Forecast does not incorporate any proposed measures, only those that are final Proposed federal measures to reduce nonroad and solvent emissions not included Could include in future update Other potential emission sources not included here, for example Sumas2, BP Cherry Point, Intalco High and low scenarios will be in report and show expected high/low bounds for 2010 and 2025 as a result of high/low growth, Kyoto, improved vehicle technology and fuel economy, and high/low electricity production.

Conclusions After initial decline, “Smog Forming Pollutants” expected to increase after 2015 Marine sources, followed by agriculture are Top 2 “SFP” emitters after 2015 Important to ascertain the importance of NH3 in secondary PM formation – limiting reagent? GHG increasing steadily from 1990 to 42% above 1990 by 2010 in GVRD/FVRD Can’t be complacent – CWS & Kyoto If we want to stay in compliance with CWS provisions of Keeping Clean Areas Clean / Continuous Improvement, as well as reducing GHG emissions as a result of Kyoto, we can’t be complacent.

Next Steps Forecast could be updated following: Release of “Canadianized” MOBILE6 Model EPA release of new NONROAD model Work with marine sector to better define activity and emissions Other methodology changes, regulatory activity Phase 2 Forecast could address: Proposed Regulations (federal, regional) Other emission reduction measures

Next Steps (cont’d) Forecast used by AQ modellers at Environment Canada to forecast future air quality Continue active participation in Georgia Basin / Puget Sound International Airshed Partnership Develop Workplan for development of a new AQMP

The End Any Questions?