PLSC 111 Presidency Discussion

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Presentation transcript:

PLSC 111 Presidency Discussion Shawn J. Donahue Discussion Section April 30, 2018

13 Keys to the Presidency By Professor Allan Lichtman Correctly predicted nearly every Presidential election Based on incumbent party in power 8 keys or more are yes incumbent party wins Less than 8 keys are yes incumbent party loses

Keys #1-4 #1- Party Mandate #2- Contest #3- Incumbency #4- Third party After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. #2- Contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. #3- Incumbency The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. #4- Third party There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Keys #5-9 #5- Short term economy #6- Long term economy The economy is not in recession during the election campaign #6- Long term economy Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. #7- Policy change The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. #8- Social unrest There is no sustained social unrest during the term. #9- Scandal The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Keys #10-13 #10- Foreign/military failure The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. #11- Foreign/military success The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. #12- Incumbent charisma The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. #13- Challenger charisma The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

The 2020 Democratic Field

2020 Democratic Field

2020 Democratic Field

2020 Democratic Field

2020 Democratic Field

Potential Trump Challengers

Writing Assignment #1- Based on the 13 keys to the Presidency (as of now), how would you assess President Trump’s chances at reelection? Are there any things that lead you to believe that he will either (a) win reelection, or (b) be defeated for reelection? Do you see any chance he could be defeated for re-nomination? #2- Which of the potential Democratic candidates do you (a) see as the most likely to win the nomination, and (b) as the strongest candidate to run against President Trump? Explain and justify your answers.