Corn and Soybean Outlook AAEA Washington, DC Aug. 5, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.4 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 156.5 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,950 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 729 Imports 8 28 29 160 30 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,929 14,709 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,450 5,150 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,650 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,400 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 700 1,250 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,200 12,750 Ending Stocks 1,959 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.95 4.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 77.7 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 44.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,420 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 125 Imports 15 14 16 25 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,209 3,560 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,660 1,695 Seed & Residual 110 130 90 95 120 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,330 1,450 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,085 3,264 Ending Stocks 295 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 10.75 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Corn Crop Rating

Soybean Crop Rating

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 4.58 4.50 4.33 Source: CME Group, 8/2/2013

Current Soybean Futures 11.18 10.97 10.49 Source: CME Group, 8/2/2013

New Crop Prices

Corn Yield Estimate - Crop Conditions

3 Month Outlook - Temps

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Can the new crop beat the summer heat? So far, so good Then can it beat the freeze? New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt Corn demand rebounding? 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (8/2/13) Corn $6.95 $4.80 $4.33 Soybeans $14.40 $10.75 $11.18

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/