COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Organizational Structure of COSMO (2) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Organizational Structure of COSMO (3) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

And many internal visits to work on specific topics. Internal Exchanges WG1: Meeting about satellite assimilation by 1-Dvar July 2004, DWD WG2: Workshop: 21 September 2004; Milano WG3: Workshop: 21 September 2004; Milano WG4: Workshop: May 2004 Geneve 21-22 September 2004 Milano WG5: Workshop: May 2004 Geneve WG6: Meeting on “Code Optimization and Portability“ MeteoSwiss, CSCS and DWD And many internal visits to work on specific topics. Two meetings of Working Groups Coordinators Two meeting of the Steering Committee 10/04/2019

COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Lokal-Modell (LM): Dynamics and Numerics SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Lokal-Modell (LM): Dynamics and Numerics SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Lokal-Modell (LM): Physics SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Lokal-Modell (LM): Physics SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Lokal-Modell (LM) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Lokal-Modell (LM): data assimilation SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Operational Application of LM SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Lokal Modell at DWD 3.9 SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Lokal Modell aLMo at MeteoSwiss 3.9 SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway LAMI Italy 3.9 SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Lokal Modell at HNMS HNMS ECMWF SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Lokal Modell at IMGW SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway COSMO-LEPS at ECMWF SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Major changes during past year Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Major changes to the COSMO systems during last year GME GME: Operational GCM at DWD Icosahedral-hexagonal grid Operators of second order accuracy 60 km mesh size, 164000 (369000) gridpoints/layer 31 layers (hybrid, sigma/pressure) Prognostic variables: ps, u, v, T, qv, qc, qi, o3 Programming: Fortran90, MPI for message passing Intermittent data assimilation (OI, 3-hourly) From 00 and 12 UTC: Forecasts up to 174 hours From 18 UTC: Forecasts up to 48 hours SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Major changes to the COSMO systems during last year GME SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Major changes to the COSMO systems during last year GME 27 September 2004 : 40-km, 40 layers Grid spacing reduced from 60 km to 40 km Number of layers increased from 31 to 40 Lowest model layer now 10 m above ground (before: 33 m) New multi-layer soil model with solution of heat conduction equation inclusion of the effects of freezing/melting of soil water improved snow model SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Changes to the new multí-layer soil model Major changes to the COSMO systems during last year LM LM Version 3.6: 11.12.03 Changes to the new multí-layer soil model New option to assimilate single SATOB winds LM Version 3.7: 18.02.04 Prognostic precipitation for Leapfrog scheme Additional options for Runge-Kutta scheme Synthetic satellite images for Meteosat, MSG Adaptations in the TKE scheme SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

First ifdef in lmorg (because of floating point trapping on the IBM) Major changes to the COSMO systems during last year LM LM Version 3.8: 23.03.04 Technical changes to Runge-Kutta scheme (also prognostic precipitation with SL-advection) LM Versions 3.9: 22.04.04 Bug corrections LM Versions 3.10: 23.06.04 LM Version 3.11 28.07.04 First ifdef in lmorg (because of floating point trapping on the IBM) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Major changes to the COSMO systems during last year LM LM Version 3.12 15.09.04 Preparations for assimilation of 1dVar satellite retrievals New option for revised quality control for humidity Initialization of fields for prognostic precipitation SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 1: Data Assimilation Coordinator: Christoph Schraff from DWD Further developments have been carried on about assimilation of radar data. A huge amount of experimentation has been carried on as regards Latent Heat Nudging (LHN) but results are not very promising. The introduction of the prognostic precipitation scheme in LM has brought another serious problem of consistency with the basic assumption of the present LHN scheme. More work will be devoted to this task next year but it is under planning the organization of a workshop, open to scientist outside COSMO, to better address future programs in radar data assimilation. As regards GPS data, some more work has been doing about the application of TOMOGRAPHY technique to estimate the 4-dimensional distribution of atmospheric water vapor (cooperation with Marc Troller from ETH). SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 1: Data Assimilation Coordinator: Christoph Schraff from DWD Wind-profiler data are now assimilate on an operational basis; positive impact especially on upper air fields. Work on assimilation of SATOB winds is ongoing. The nudging assimilation code has been adapted to allow preliminary tests, on real case, of the LM-Z version of the model. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 2: Numerical Aspects Coordinator: Juergen Steppeler from DWD The development of the Z-coordinate version of LM has been continued during the year: The eulerian version, by Steppeler and Bitzer, is almost ready for testing on real cases by using the available interface to the terrain-following physics of LM. A new Z-coordinates version of LM with semi-implicit two time-level semi-implicit discretizations and semi-lagrangian advection has been developed, by Cesari and Bonaventura, and tested on ideal 2-D cases. Formulation of a new dynamical lower Boundary Condition Investigation and testing of RK schemes and high-order spatial discretization SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments Flash LMK SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Günther Doms, Michael Baldauf LMK: A Very Short Range Forecasting System Slides from a presentation by Günther Doms, Michael Baldauf SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

LMK - (LM-Kürzestfrist) Goals Development of a model-based NWP system for very short range forecasts (2-18 h) of severe weather events on the meso- scale, especially those related to deep moist convection (super- and multi-cell thunderstorms, squall-lines, MCCs, rainbands,...) interactions with fine-scale topography (severe downslope winds, Föhn-storms, flash floodings, fog, ...) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway LMK will require not only adjustments of existing schemes but also the development of new components Further developments in the method to assimilate radar data(Latent heat nudging, LHN) 5-min radar composits (DX-data) including quality control Development of an efficient time-integration scheme allowing for high-order spatial discretization - modified metrics, new ‘symmetric’ thermodynamics, BCs, cov. metrics Full 3-d budget equations for precipitating hydrometeors Development of new physics schemes for kilometer-scale simulations (graupel and hail microphysics, 3-d turbulence, shallow convection) Development of new tools for model validation and verification using remote-sensing data (pseudo-satellite and pseudo-radar products, Lidar, cloud-radars) Development of products and methods to interpret model results from deterministic forecasts (on stochastic scales) and to estimate the predictability (probabilistic products) verification: high resolution -> verification with remote sensing data stochastic regime: SKIPPO SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Current Activities Radar Data Generation of a DX composite for the DWD network Quality control Clutter corrections Latent Heat Nudging (LHN) Diagnostic studies -> Reasons for the short memory time of LHN? Use of DX data Code transfer to LM LHN <--> prognostic precipitation ? problem: different basic assumptions SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Current Activities (2) Dynamics, Numerics, Boundary Data - New ‘symmetric thermodynamics’ within the RK3 solver - Lateral boundary conditions: ‘pressure drop’ (solved) - LBC’s for prognostic precipitation - Update of LM2LM ( SLEVE coordinate, ex. Param for data assimilation) - Idealized cases Physical Parameterization - Implementation of 3-d turbulence for the RK3 solver - Test and evaluation of the new Graupel-Scheme - Development of a shallow convection scheme - Sensitivity tests for radiation update frequency Verification and Validation - Synop Verification of LMK testsuites - Pseudo-satellite and pseudo-radar products SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Project LMK: Milestones Autumn 2004: Prototype version of the LMK-System with data assimilation but without LHN running. Summer 2005: Prototype version of the LMK-System with LHN is running in a quasi-operational mode. Further testing and evaluation of new numerical schemes and physical parameterizations. Early 2006: Start of a pre-operational test-phase. Fine-Tuning and final evaluation of all components of the system. End 2006: Start of the operational application . SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 3: Physical Aspects Coordinator: Marco Arpagaus from MeteoSwiss Planetary Boundary Layer formulation in LM still under revision. Some tuning of the scheme has been performed and some work has been also done to allow higher vertical resolution of the lowest part of the boundary layer 1-D single column model developed Implementation of 3D turbulence formulation: the prognostic equations have been extended to include three-dimensional flux-terms. The scheme is under testing to improve LM use at very high horizontal resolution (as the planned 2.8 km version of LM). . SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 3: Physical Aspects Coordinator: Marco Arpagaus from MeteoSwiss The Cloud Ice scheme (Doms, 2002), has been implemented in the operational applications of LM. The prognostic precipitation scheme has been completed (Gassman, 2002); operational implementation is ongoing. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 3: Physical Aspects Coordinator: Marco Arpagaus from MeteoSwiss Development of a Shallow convection scheme on the meso-γ scale: started and ongoing A first theoretical formulation of a new convection scheme has been done by Guenther Doms to better represent convective processes in the meso-gamma version of LM. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 3: Physical Aspects Coordinator: Marco Arpagaus from MeteoSwiss The new multi-layer soil model (Schroding and Heise, 2002) is under operational implementation at DWD. A lake model based on a two-layer self-similar representation of the temperature profile in the mixed layer and in the thermocline has been developed by Dmitrii Mironov and is now being tested. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 4: Interpretation and Applications Coordinator: Pierre Eckert from MeteoSwiss The COSMO-LEPS (see COSMO status report SRNWP meeting 2003) suite is running regularly and products are disseminated to COSMO partners. Test of experimental suites to assess possible modifications of the operational suite are ongoing. Another Special Project by ARPA-SIM and MeteoSwiss has been approved by ECMWF, which aims at further development of the system. Quite a lot of progresses have been done in the development of COSMO-LEPS verification. The 24-h precipitation forecast by COSMO-LEPS has been verified against observations over 3 COSMO countries (Italy, Germany and Switzerland) for the period November 2002 - January 2003. Different methodologies. Present results, also coming from statistical analyses of EPS, give two major indications: Clustering on 10 members shows better results than using 5 clusters A super-ensemble of 100+2 members (the two most recent EPS) is better than using 150+3 members (the present configuration) The COSMO-LEPS suite was modified in accordance with these results since July 2004. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 4: Interpretation and Applications Coordinator: Pierre Eckert from MeteoSwiss As regards SLEPS project, simulations for winter storms Lothar and Martin have been performed using ECMWF EPS with moist and operational singular vectors, respectively, and using two different horizontal resolutions (EPS vs. LEPS resolution). Implementation of Brasseur wind gust formulation in SLEPS LM version. Guidelines for the use of bench forecasters and Collection of forecaster’s feed back are under preparation. Workshop has been organised in Geneva 5-6 May 2004. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 5: Verification and Case Studies Coordinator: Frances Schubiger from MeteoSwiss Operational verification of national applications is ongoing regularly in each COSMO country. Verification will be extended also to the assimilation cycle. Many activities addressed to high resolution verification using regional radar data,satellite and non-GTS data are carried on in Germany, Switzerland and Italy. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 5: Verification and Case Studies coordinated by Francis Schubiger from MeteoSwiss The procedure to collect not GTS data from Germany, Switzerland, Italy and Poland (more than 4500 stations for precipitation) is now operational. LM national applications running on overlapping areas can be compared. Operational model output from the different COSMO countries are exchanged in real time at the COSMO web-site; grib files are plotted on the member area with the same graphycs package to make easier forecasts intercomparison. The development of a COSMO common verification package at ECMWF is well ongoing. See!!! SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

COSMO non-GTS precipitation data for verification SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 6: Reference Version and Implementation Coordinator: Ulrich Schaettler from DWD Installation, updating and running of the LM is a permanent task of the COSMO member sites. The last released version of LM is the 3.12 (7 versions released during the year). The present Reference Version of LM is still the 3.1; the next reference version will be released very soon. The SW updating procedure is still under completion but big progresses have been done thanks also to the ongoing implementation of the Common Verification Package at ECMWF. The unified version of INT2LM (boundary and initial conditions from LM, GME and IFS) is now available and tested. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Working group 6: Reference Version and Implementation Coordinator: Ulrich Schaettler from DWD The sub-working group on code optimization and portability is working. Software engineering guidelines will be released. Due to problem in Greece connected to the olimpic games, the COSMO web site was moved to Manno (usually the mirror site). The principal web site in Greece will be restored in few months from now. Documentation is still under completion. SW tools are available for internal COSMO exchanges through the web. Towards ISO 9000. DWD and MeteoSwiss are about to be ISO certified (October / November) SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway LME: LM Europe Model Configuration Grid spacing: 0.0625° (~ 7 km) 665 x 657 grid points per layer 40 vertical layers Timestep: 40 sec Daily runs at 00, 12, 18 UTC, +78h Boundary Conditions Interpolated GME forecasts with ds ~ 40 km and 40 layers (hourly) Hydrostatic pressure at lateral boundaries Data Assimilation Nudging analysis scheme Variational soil moisture analysis SST analysis at 00 UTC Snow depth analysis every 6 hrs SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway Time schedule for LME March 2004 Implementation of LME at ECMWF May 2004 Agreement on model domain between DWD departments: October 2004 Pre-operational in parallel suite with data assimilation at DWD including current model changes: 1. Prognostic precipitation 2. New soil model First quarter in 2005 Operational at DWD SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway The COSMO perspectives driving scientific developments for the next years are: Improve of LM system at the current resolution Doing high resolution forecast at the meso-gamma scale Enhance Use of Remote-sensing data in data assimilation Development of Ensemble Systems Based on LM Improve internal exchange and communications Improve exchange with other consortia SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Future Activities and Developments The present COSMO-LM system will be improved to produce better quantitative precipitation forecast at scales at which deep convection must still be parametrized. Even going to higher horizontal resolution with Cloud Resolving Models (CRM), coarser models will be an important component of operational meteorological suites for a long time. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Future Activities and Developments Improving assimilation system for the meso-gamma scale implies more extensive and better use of remote sensing data; variational technique to assimilate satellite radiances will be developed and implemented. different methodology to fully exploit the use of radar data will be evaluated; LHN will be anyway further tested and developed. Much effort must be spent to produce a good analysis of the 3-D moisture field; to this purpose GPS data will be used also with tomography technique. The nudging assimilation scheme will be tuned and further optimized also giving more emphasis to the use of surface level data. The further development of the COSMO nudging scheme will incude also modifications required by the use of the LM-Z version of the model. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Future Activities and Developments LM_Z will be tested on real cases also comparing the two dynamical core options developed: eulerian and Semi-implicit semi-lagrangian. Further developments of higher order RK schemes to reach a suitable level of accuracy. Computational efficiency and numerical accuracy must be anyway pursued together in the coming up generation of meso-gamma CRM. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Future Activities and Developments Most of the ongoing projects related to physical aspects are already oriented toward meso-gamma applications of LM. Particular emphasis must be given to: Implementation of 3–D turbulence Development of a new radiation scheme Full implementation of the new soil model Advanced microphysical scheme Improvement of PBL Shallow convection SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Future Activities and Developments WG4: Applications LAM Ensemble System(s) COSMO-LEPS performance must be completely evaluated also comparing the system with other lower cost system. Alternative Ensemble prediction methodologies should also be explored like multi-model ensemble. At longer time scale, a Short Range Ensemble with own perturbations could be developed. Post-processing methodologies and LM products applications will be fully reported to allow exchanges among COSMO partners. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Future Activities and Developments Verification methodologies will be improved and/or developed as regards: Verification at the meso-gamma scale Boundary layer processes Conditional verification The list of COSMO case studies for verification will include cases selected by model developers to test the impact of new model developments. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Future Activities and Developments The improvement of scientific and information exchanges, both within COSMO and between COSMo and other consortia or scientists, is at high level of priority in the short period. the COSMO web-site will be progressively enriched and the establishment of a solid web-management will assure a constant and timely updating of the site content. Cooperations with other European consortia will be stimulated also opening the working groups workshops/meetings. Visiting scientist programmes will be defined. SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

Thanks for your attention !!! SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway

SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 4-7 October 2004 OSLO Norway