Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System

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Presentation transcript:

Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System Jing Chen, Hua Tian, Gou Deng National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA

Contents GEPS System Configuration GEPS Update Tigge relative research and use

T213 GEPS Configuration Product processing T213L31 Run all members. Upgraded T213 GEPS System model T213L31 Horizontal Resolution 0.5625 Vertical Resolution 31 Analysis system 3D SSI+ATOVS Perturbation method BGM Perturbation region Global EPS members 15 forecast 10 days Typhoon relocation and vortex perturbation Obs SSI+ATOVS BGM perturbation method Con.l Run IC1+ IC1- IC2+ IC2- Run all members. Product processing

System Structure and Flow Chart T213 GEPS Based on-BGM System Structure and Flow Chart

Global EPS Upgrade Data assimilation from Optimal Interpolation  3DVAR +ATOVS in 2008 CMA old EPS CMA upgraded EPS Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) Control run forecast skill improve from 5 to 6.5 day

Global TC ensemble prediction New update in 2009 for Global TC ensemble prediction Old TC EPS： Perturbed TC environment Upgrade TC EPS：perturbed TC environment ＋ Vortex. Old TC EPS Difference New TC EPS

The ensemble products update on the NMC’s web http://www.nmc.gov.cn/publish/nwp/eps- t213/probability/precipitation/index.htm

Tigge relative research and use Global EPS system upgrade; Typhoon EPS system development; Method for bias correction & combination, cluster; Numerical model error analysis and NWP Probability; Hydrology prediction drived by TIGGE data; Method for severe weather potential forecast; TIGGE-LAM researches Data operational use Medium-range forecast with TIGGE data; CXML typhoon track EPS product;

Global TC track EPS CXML digital products CXML ( Cyclone extensible Markup Language): No.0817, HIGOS (2008) CMA ECMWF NCEP JMA KMA UKMO

Hydrology forecast based on downscaling TIGGE precipitation CMA CMA ECMWF ECMWF NCEP NCEP Hydrology forecast based on downscaling TIGGE precipitation TIGGE precipitation in watershed

Period and flood runoff forecast based on EPS data Super EPS flood runoff probability prediction

THANKS