Todd C. Crawford, MD, J. Trent Magruder, MD, Joshua C

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Presentation transcript:

A Comprehensive Risk Score to Predict Prolonged Hospital Length of Stay After Heart Transplantation Todd C. Crawford, MD, J. Trent Magruder, MD, Joshua C. Grimm, MD, Alejandro Suarez-Pierre, MD, Nishant Patel, MD, Christopher M. Sciortino, MD, Kenton J. Zehr, MD, Kaushik Mandal, MD, Ryan J. Tedford, MD, Stuart D. Russell, MD, John V. Conte, MD, Robert S. Higgins, MD, Duke E. Cameron, MD, Glenn J. Whitman, MD The Annals of Thoracic Surgery Volume 105, Issue 1, Pages 83-90 (January 2018) DOI: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2017.07.012 Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Histogram demonstrating the distribution of the prolonged hospitalization after heart transplant (PHAHT) scores in the (A) derivation cohort and (B) validation cohort. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2018 105, 83-90DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2017.07.012) Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Scatter plot comparing predicted rate (x-axis) of prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS) after heart transplant to observed rate (y-axis) in the validation cohort. Bubble size reflects the frequency with which unique prolonged hospitalization after heart transplant (PHAHT) scores were observed. The R2 value for the logistic regression equation comparing observed to expected rates of prolonged hospitalization was 0.62, which corresponded to a correlation coefficient, r, of 0.79. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2018 105, 83-90DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2017.07.012) Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 3 Kaplan-Meier survival analysis assessing freedom from mortality at 1 year after heart transplantation (HT), stratified by low risk (blue line), moderate risk (red line), and high risk (green line) groups according to prolonged hospitalization after heart transplant (PHAHT) score. (The lighter colored lines on either side of the dark lines represent 95% confidence intervals.) Freedom from mortality differed significantly between risk groups (log rank p < 0.01). (CI = confidence interval.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2018 105, 83-90DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2017.07.012) Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions