Kenya 2016/17 Drought Analysis Kenya Meteorological Department Joyce Kimutai March 2017

Past droughts events in Kenya Year People impacted 1991/92 1.5 million 1995/96 1.4 million 1999/2000 4.4 million 2004 3 million 2008/09 March 2017

In 2010/11, 3.7 million were affected Counties most impacted : Turkana,Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, and Tana River In 2016/17 over 3 million by March 16th 2017 The 12 counties in an alarm stage : Marsabit, Garissa, Mandera, Isiolo, Kwale, Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, Tana River, Kilifi, Wajir and Lamu. Some expected to slide into the emergency phase in the coming weeks. 11 counties at the alert stage: Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Kitui, Meru (North), Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni) and Taita Taveta. March 2017

MAM 2010 OND 2010 MAM 2011 MAM 2016 OND 2016 ? March 2017

Study area March 2017

Methodology Scientists from Kenya Met Department, World Weather Attribution and University of Nairobi collaborated on this analysis Multiple methods of attribution science were used to look at the possible roles of climate change and La Nina in the drought. March 2017

Results The areas with the lowest rainfall in this drought are in the northwest and southeast parts of the country. Trends indicate that the temperatures involved in this drought are hotter than they would have been without the influence of climate change. There is no significant shift in rainfall amounts due to climate change, but the team cannot exclude small changes in the risk of poor rains The depressed October-December rainfall was largely influenced by La Nina March 2017

Recommendations Temperature increase due to climate change can lead to a stress on water supply and livestock. In order to reduce future impacts of climate change this remains a priority in disaster management and agriculture planning. The La Nina influence demonstrates the importance of managing climate variability-the regular year-to-year shifts in climate. There is a high potential for using seasonal forecasts to trigger preventative actions, before the onset of a meteorological event, to reduce impacts. March 2017

MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2017 RAINFALL OUTLOOK