WHY STUDY IRAN? Because it tells us so much about what other Muslim majority states think and do? (Sunni vs. Shia) Because we need to understand the states that are most likely to stay resistant forever to democracy and the west? Because they have WMDs and are the biggest threat to peace in the ME? Because they are so aggressive towards the United States, resenting us for our freedom? More seriously now: 79 million people who have aspirations towards regional hegemony, and who are a natural US ally perhaps. A practioner of off-shore balancing and offensive realism Is Iran more like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Turkey? The curse of oil of course – one third of the world’s reserves, but…

IRAN’ S CRITICAL JUNCTURES Why Iran isn’t Iraq or Afghanistan? It has 2500 years of being Persia Why is Iran Islamic? The Arab Conquest, Islam arrives (7th and 8th C) Why is it not Sunni? The Safavids (1501-1722) The Qajars (1794-1925): Once again, we have British and Russian colonialism and division of a developing country (parallels to China) Why didn’t Iran’s first attempt at democracy work? The 1906 Constitution; WW1, depression Shaw I (1925 to 1941): A modernizing tyrant? 1941-1953: Power to the son and Mosaddeq: A nascent democracy, socialism, or nationalism? The 1953 coup d'état: Why did the US do operation Ajax? (A useful contrast with Mexico here)

WHY REVOLUTION IN IRAN? Rising expectations (The “White” Revolution changed Iran from 1963 forward; 1973-78 OPEC) The awaiting cult leader (Khomeini) His revolutionary ideology (Islamism) A weakened state: The Shaw and Carter (1976) 1978: Moderate-Radical coalitions seize power in Iran; the Shaw escapes to the US & then Egypt The old trick of using an enemy to consolidate power: Seizing the US embassy (1979) Using war for the same: The Iraq-Iran War (1980-88) Limited purges and consolidation into a somewhat totalitarian state Khomeini ‘s death (1989); Ali Khamenei replaces Since then – back and forth balance bw reformers and moderates/hardliners

THE POLITICAL POWER OF THE MULLAHS IN IRAN: Rule by the Religious Jurist (velayat-e faqih) and a supporting cast of clerics The Supreme leader (Ayatollha/Imam): A monarch/sultan of sort (currently Ali Khamenei) Assembly of Religious Experts (a permanent Electoral College with 86 members who are directly elected every 8 yrs… but vetted by Council of Guardians)) Council of Guardians (12-member; 6 appt. by Supreme Leader, 6 appt. by the Judiciary & approved by parliament for 6 yr. staggered terms) The Revolutionary Guards (an elite army with deep ties into the Iranian economy) Oil and semi-public “Foundations”

IS THERE ANY STRUCTURAL FOUNDATION FOR DEMOCRACY IN IRAN? A directly-elected President with a 2-term (@4yr) limit. Has no veto, but considerable informal powers that seem like those of the US presidency Will the presidency disappear? The Parliament (The Majilis) 265 FPTP districts Can pass legislation, but… No political parties allowed in Iran (one way to control the pol. opposition is to divide it) The Expediency Council: Sort of a second Supreme Court

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN?

WILL REFORM COME TO IRAN? Is Iran all that revolutionary or totalitarian these days? Actually, there are strong revolutionar., autho-natl., and liberal forces Why do religious conservatives still have so much support? The US, patronage, & history Is oil a blessing or a curse of oil on Iran’s democratic potential? Is the Supreme Leader all that conservative? The debate over Islam’s relationship with the state and with democracy Will young people lead a counter revolution? Institutional change? What to make of Ahmadinejad over the long run (his power, his populism, his non-cleric status & his ties to the rev. guards)?