Shift in DPRK Nuclear Policy

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Presentation transcript:

Shift in DPRK Nuclear Policy Impact on Arsenal Size, Command and Control Diane Stevenson, Thomson Reuters Special Services

What is Nuclear Posture? Policies that determine the role of nuclear weapons in strategy Why does North Korea’s matter? DPRK nuclear intentions are critical to the security balance in Northeast Asia How can we determine North Korea’s posture? Observing recent events suggests changes in domestic nuclear politics

UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Past Future Present

Historic Posture: Catalytic New Posture: Assured Retaliatory UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Historic Posture: Catalytic New Posture: Assured Retaliatory Revolves around a third party patron No third party patron Requires a small arsenal Requires a larger arsenal Limited technical threshold High technical threshold Past Future Present

Historic Posture: Catalytic New Posture: Assured Retaliatory UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Historic Posture: Catalytic New Posture: Assured Retaliatory Revolves around a third party patron No third party patron Requires a small arsenal Requires a larger arsenal Limited technical threshold High technical threshold Past Future Present Indicators Relationship with China Arsenal size Development of increasingly survivable and technically advanced systems

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE OPTIONS

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE OPTIONS Development of survivable and mobile systems Prioritizing missile defense systems

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE OPTIONS Development of survivable and mobile systems Changes to the command and control structure Prioritizing missile defense systems Tasking intelligence and military assets to track second-strike systems

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE OPTIONS Development of survivable and mobile systems Changes to the command and control structure Future research on missile defense evasion Prioritizing missile defense systems Tasking intelligence and military assets to track second-strike systems Partnering with China to restrict technical progress

Thank You!