REVIEW OF KENYA ENERGY MIX FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT By Muriithi Joseph kagotho Department of Physics, University of Nairobi And Murimi Cyprian Department of Geology, University of Nairobi

Source: NASA, 2009

ERC Updated Least Cost Power Development Plan Energy Projection Scenarios The projected demand has been discussed in terms of three scenarios: Low Scenario: The Scenario represents a low growth trajectory where most of the government plans are not implemented as planned. It is assumed that in this scenario economic development will be at the existing rate with no expected increase during the planning period. Reference Scenario: This is the base case scenario with development projected from the historical growth. High Scenario: This scenario is based on the development patterns highly driven by Vision 2030 and implementation of flagship projects

Key energy projections The energy consumption in Kenya is set to increase in the coming years. The gross electricity consumption is expected to grow from 10,465GWh in 2017 to 14,334GWh and 39,187GWh in 2022 and 2037 respectively in reference scenario. Demand is expected to grow to 2,421MW and 6,638MW in 2022 and 2037 respectively up from 1,754 in 2017 in reference scenario. Source: ERC, 2018

Key energy projections continues…. Electricity demand is expected to grow to 9,790MW in 2037 which is more than five times of the peak demand of 1,754MW in 2017 in the high scenario. In the low scenario, the energy consumed is projected to increase to 27,945 GWh by the year 2037 from 10,465 GWh in 2017. Source: ERC, 2018

Paris agreement commitment Member states Kenya included agreed to transform their development trajectories towards limiting warming to below 2˚C above pre-industrial levels. Towards this target, International Energy Agency (IEA) developed a 2˚C scenario, which sets out a pathway that may avoid consequences of climate change in a large proportion. The scenario suggests a large increase of all low-carbon sources in global electricity generation.

Power generation sources and the Paris goal (Source: WNA, 2017)

Kenya energy mix SWOT analysis Strengths Kenya’s geographical location Strong government policies and goals Existence of County governments Weaknesses Poor physical applicability of regulations High taxation Inadequate consumer awareness

Opportunities Investment in renewable energy resources exploitation electricity transmission loss reduction techniques. Cultivation of biofuel crops. Investment in waste to energy conversion technologies. electric and flexible vehicles. Threats Projects politicizing. Corruption Lack of stakeholder’s goodwill. Insufficient funding

Way forward The government to offer vibrant support towards investments in renewable energy sector. Implement off-grid electricity generation systems where it is not economically sustainable or physically feasible to connect people to the national grid. Where thermal energy is to be used, biofuels or fossil fuels with biofuel additives are encouraged. Subsidize on the costs of purchasing solar modules.  Additionally, relevant stakeholders to enhance awareness of the long term benefits of installing solar panels.

Way forward continues……….. Stakeholders to encourage and support research and innovations especially by local students and youths aiming to improve energy saving, reduction of transmission losses and minimizing transformer vandalism. KPLC to encourage and facilitate installation of advanced smart meters by the customers. The National Climate Change Council be more vibrant in performing their duties as stipulated by the Climate Change Act 2016. NEMA to carry out a thorough environmental impact assessment process before licensing any project.

Way forward continues……………. Lamu coal power generation bid be dropped and instead the finances be channeled towards supporting justifiable power projects. Due to the adverse environmental effects of plastic pollution and the rising demand of electricity, establish a large scale plastic incineration factory. The factory must however strictly operate under emission limits. Nuclear power commissioning be delayed to the time when the project will earn economic justification. Human resource development in Nuclear science and applications and Radiation protection, safety and security be strongly supported. Collaborative approach of key stakeholders is highly encouraged.

Way forward continues…………. For effective implementation of energy sector projects by the national government, Counties are advised to develop and implement individual power development plans in line with national government plans. Community participation be considered in making key decisions during planning and commissioning of energy sector projects such as oil exploration in Turkana as it has the potential to make suggestions that can rejuvenate community trust Government to put in place regulations requiring that biofuels are used as additives in standard fuels. Going forward, flexible vehicles should be promoted in the country. Testing and maintenance of electricity equipment be done in a way that they meet global benchmark standards. Liberalize energy production so that anyone can produce energy and supply it to the national grid at a fee.

THANK YOU!!!