Premature mortality projections in the USA through 2030: a modelling study Ana F Best, PhD, Emily A Haozous, PhD, Amy Berrington de Gonzalez, dPhil, Pavel.

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Premature mortality projections in the USA through 2030: a modelling study Ana F Best, PhD, Emily A Haozous, PhD, Amy Berrington de Gonzalez, dPhil, Pavel Chernyavskiy, PhD, Neal D Freedman, PhD, Patricia Hartge, ScD, David Thomas, PhD, Philip S Rosenberg, PhD, Meredith S Shiels, PhD The Lancet Public Health Volume 3, Issue 8, Pages e374-e384 (August 2018) DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30114-2 Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Observed and projected age-standardised all-cause mortality rates for those aged 25–64 years Observed rates are for 1990–2015 for American Indians or Alaska natives and the US population, and 1990–2016 for all other groups, and projected rates to 2030. (A) shows data for women, and (B) shows data for men. The vertical dotted line at 2016 marks the end of the observation period. Annotations indicate estimated annual percentage change during the observed and projected time periods. Shaded areas denote pointwise 95% CIs for the mean age-standardised rate. The Lancet Public Health 2018 3, e374-e384DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30114-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Observed and projected age-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for those aged 25–64 years y-axis limits vary by column. The vertical dashed line indicates the end of the observation period. Shaded areas denote pointwise 95% CIs for the mean age-standardised rate. The Lancet Public Health 2018 3, e374-e384DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30114-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Observed and projected proportion of total annual person-years of life lost up to age 65 years The Lancet Public Health 2018 3, e374-e384DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30114-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Observed and projected 1990–2030 age-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for people aged 25–64 years Dashed curves show estimates based on optimistic projections (2% per year reduction in projected mortality due to accidental death); solid curves show estimates based on base-case projections. Vertical dotted line at 2016 marks the end of the observation period. Shaded areas denote pointwise 95% CIs for the mean age-standardised rate. Table shows estimated reduction in accidental death burden during 2017–30. The Lancet Public Health 2018 3, e374-e384DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30114-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions