Seminario: Ecosystem Services University of Guadalajara The Great Transition: Our Future Scenarios 1)Market Forces 2) Fortress World 3) Policy Reform 4) Great Transition Dr. Paul C. Sutton Seminario: Ecosystem Services University of Guadalajara Guadalajara, Mexico December 2-5, 2016 1

http://greattransition.org/

Land Degradation contributes to Loss of ecosystem services

Land Degradation in Central America % of Potential NPP

Land Degradation in South America % of Potential NPP

Regional ecosystem service value losses from land degradation (based on the Haberl and Imhoff models (see Chapter 3), and the data found in Appendix 3 and 4) http://www.eld-initiative.org/fileadmin/pdf/ELD-main-report_05_web_72dpi.pdf

Percentage change in the value of land from land degradation (based on the Haberl and Imhoff models, data found in Appendix 3) The Great or perhaps not so Great Transitions are underway . . . .

The Scenarios Individualism Community Focus on Well-being

Characterizing the Scenarios (Note: This is only from land cover change Not from land degradation) This table shows the 12 scenarios that were combined from 3 different sources to make the four future scenarios used in this paper. It also shows the characteristics and variable of these four scenarios.

Land Cover Transitions (for details on modeling rules see this paper Robert Costanza, Rudolf de Groot, Paul Sutton, Sander van der Ploeg, Sharolyn J. Anderson, Ida Kubiszewski, Stephen Farber, R. Kerry Turner, Changes in the global value of ecosystem services, Global Environmental Change, Volume 26, May 2014, Pages 152-158, ISSN 0959-3780, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000685) Keywords: Ecosystem services; Global value; Monetary units; Natural capital Urban Wetland Cropland Forest Rangeland/grassland Desert This is the Data we will use in the workshop (next 5 slides)

Baseline (2011) Base: 2011

Market Forces Market Forces

Fortress World Fortress World

Policy Reform Policy Reform

Great Transition Great Transition Great Transition

Global Consequences of Scenario Differences ES Values for 1997, 2011, 4 Scenarios

National Consequences East & Southeast Asia

National Consequences Southeast Asia

National Consequences South Asia

Percent Change in ES Values Global map showing the scale of percent change for each country in ecosystem services value in each of the four scenarios from the 2011 base map.

Asia & Oceania The terrestrial values for the ecosystem services in 47 countries in Asia and Oceania for the 2011 base and each of the four future scenarios, including the percent change for all four scenarios.

Temporal Modeling Total values out to 2050 This graph shows the total values for each scenario through 2050 when both the unit values and land areas are changed.

China The biome land use changes for four scenarios compared to 2011 ecosystem services values. First Column: Maps of the land cover of each biome for the base map and the four scenarios. Second Column: Maps of the pixels changed between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios. In the MF and FW maps, there are multiple symmetric circular desert areas. These occur because a single desert pixel in the original base map grew symmetrically outwards from all edges of desert. Third Column: Maps of the change in the value of ecosystem services between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios.

SE Asia The biome land use changes for four scenarios compared to 2011 ecosystem services values. First Column: Maps of the land cover of each biome for the base map and the four scenarios. Second Column: Maps of the pixels changed between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios. In the MF and FW maps, there are multiple symmetric circular desert areas. These occur because a single desert pixel in the original base map grew symmetrically outwards from all edges of desert. Third Column: Maps of the change in the value of ecosystem services between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios.

India The biome land use changes for four scenarios compared to 2011 ecosystem services values. First Column: Maps of the land cover of each biome for the base map and the four scenarios. Second Column: Maps of the pixels changed between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios. In the MF and FW maps, there are multiple symmetric circular desert areas. These occur because a single desert pixel in the original base map grew symmetrically outwards from all edges of desert. Third Column: Maps of the change in the value of ecosystem services between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios.

Bhutan The biome land use changes for four scenarios compared to 2011 ecosystem services values. First Column: Maps of the land cover of each biome for the base map and the four scenarios. Second Column: Maps of the pixels changed between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios. In the MF and FW maps, there are multiple symmetric circular desert areas. These occur because a single desert pixel in the original base map grew symmetrically outwards from all edges of desert. Third Column: Maps of the change in the value of ecosystem services between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios.

Two Studies of ESV in Bhutan Comparison of local & global studies USD $14.9 billion/year USD $15.5 billion/year 4% DIFFERENCE

Why are there Differences in Values? (Bhutan Case Study) Resolution. The global model has a one-kilometer resolution while the national study was at a much finer resolution. Using a one-kilometer resolution implies that if any part of the pixel that touches the Bhutanese border is counted, even if only a small percentage of the one-kilometer pixel is in Bhutan itself. The total land area difference was 128 thousand hectares. Resolution also makes a difference in the biomes detected in the model. Although the national study found 3,528 hectares of inland wetlands in Bhutan, they are all smaller than 1 km2, meaning that the global study did not pick up any wetlands in Bhutan. Data Source. The data from the global model came from a remote sensing study, which used satellite images to identify the biomes based on how they looked from space. This method sometimes has a hard time distinguishing between similar biomes. For example, the global study shows 804,000 hectares of tropical forests in Bhutan, even though all of Bhutan’s forests are temperate. On the other hand, the land cover data from the national study was government data that had been extensively ground truthed. Unit Values. In both studies, the unit values for each square kilometer of biome were derived through the use of benefit transfer. In the national study, all transferred values were carefully vetted to ensure that they were from regions similar in climate, quality, and other characteristics before averaging. The global model averaged values from all over the world, making them less specific to Bhutan itself.

National Consequences Latin America ? This is the goal of this workshop Map the changes for Latin American Countries Calculate the changes to ES Values from the scenarios Speculate on the ‘credibility’ of the land use changes relative to the scenarios 4) Speculate on how best to communicate these results to both policy makers and the public 5) Speculate on effective policies to chart a path to a sustainable and desirable future. Note: The ‘Speculations’ will be nationally specific.

Reference Papers Kubiszewski, I., S. J. Anderson, R. Costanza and P. C. Sutton. (2016). The Future of Ecosystem Services in Asia and the Pacific. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies 3(3): 389-404. Kubiszewski, I., R. Costanza, S. Anderson, P. Sutton. (In Review). The Future of Ecosystem Services: Global Scenarios and National Implications. Ecology & Society. Sutton, P.C., S.J. Anderson, R. Costanza, I. Kubiszewski. 2016. The ecological economics of land degradation: impacts on ecosystem service values. Ecological Economics 129: 182-192. Turner, K. G., S. Anderson, M. Gonzales-Chang, R. Costanza, S. Courville, T. Dalgaard, E. Dominati, I. Kubiszewski, S. Ogilvy, L. Porfirio, N. Ratna, H. Sandhu, P. C. Sutton, J.-C. Svenning, G. M. Turner, Y.-D. Varennes, A. Voinov and S. Wratten. (2016). A review of methods, data, and models to assess changes in the value of ecosystem services from land degradation and restoration. Ecological Modelling 319: 190-207.