Bulgaria’s Energy and National Security 12 Sofia. June 15, 2018. Bulgaria’s Energy and National Security – an independent view from the outside Bulat Nigmatulin, Institute of Power Engineering Problems, Russia

Electricity use (KWh) per $1,000 GDP 2016: Bulgaria, its neighboring countries, and the EU-28

GDP (constant prices), GFCF, and Final Electricity Consumption in Bulgaria 1990-2016 compared to 1990 (World Bank Database)

GPD, GFCF, average annual kel(GDP/GFCF) growth rates, 1980-2016

GDP (constant prices) and electricity consumption dynamics in Bulgaria, 1990-2016 compared to 1990 (World Bank Database, Eurostat).

Installed capacity and electricity generation potential in Bulgaria Power station Installed capacity, mWt Full-load hours Electricity generation, bln kWh a year Period Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant 2 000 7 500 15 2030 and further „АЕS Galabovo” Thermal Power Station 670 6 000 ÷ 7 000 4,02 ÷ 4,69 Maritsa Iztok 2 Thermal Power Station 1 580 6 000 ÷ 6 500 9,48 ÷ 10,27 Min. to 2025 ContourGlobal Maritsa East 3 Thermal Power Station 908 5,45 ÷ 6,36 Varna Thermal Power Plant 630 4 500 2,8 „Bobov Dol” Thermal Power Plant 370 1,7 Min. to 2020 Industrial and heating thermal power stations 730 6 000 3,4 ÷ 4,4 Hydropower Plants 2070 2415 4,68 ÷ 5,00 2025 and further Pumped Hydroelectric Power Stations 865 1000 0,8-0,9 Wind Power Plants 1300 2 280 2,96 Solar Power Plants 250 1 500 0,38 Thermal power station, biofuel 100   0,5 New Maritsa Iztok 2 Thermal Power Station 500 7 000 3,25 ÷ 3,5 Total to 2020 11594 54,32 ÷ 58,36 As the very least to 2025 total installed capacity of all power stations in Bulgaria will amount to 11,6 GW with probable electricity generation of 54,3 bln kWh a year

Electricity production (gross), electricity generation (net, with distribution losses) and final electricity consumption, 1990-2016

Total energy losses, electricity consumption on energy own use and total distribution losses, per cent from electric generation (gross) in Bulgaria, 1990-2016

Bulgaria’s total energy losses decreased from 34% (1999) to 27% (2015); EU-28 average – 16% Bulgaria’s energy system operational level is LOW Average additional energy generation potential amounts to 3,7 bln. kWh a year

Average import-export balance – 8,9 TWh (2010-2016) 12 Exportation, importation, and electricity import-export balance of Bulgaria, 2001-2016 In 1995-2016 positive electricity import-export balance changed from 0,16 TWh (1995) to 10,7 (2011)TWh. Average import-export balance – 8,9 TWh (2010-2016)

Bulgaria’s provisions for rising internal power consumption Bulgaria’s power engineering has additional opportunities to cover its internal electricity consumption for the near 15-20 years (to 2035): Thanks to drastic decline in electricity consumption for own use and distribution losses Thanks to dropping electric power exportation. Total provisions for electric power generation are: 12,6 TWh = 3,7 TWh + 8,9 TWh It covers nearly 40% of Bulgaria’s average electricity consumption (net) in the recent years (2010-2015)

Bulgaria’s electricity consumption mid-term forecast to 2035

Bulgaria’s GDP and GFCF (constant 2010 prices) in 1980-2016 (fact) and forecast to 2035 – both reference and optimistic scenarios

Reference scenario average GDP growth rate is 1,4%, GFCF – 2,6% Reference scenario average GDP growth rate is 1,4%, GFCF – 2,6%. 2017-2025: expected average GDP growth rate – 1,5%, GFCF – 2,9%; 2025-2035: GDP growth – 1,0%, GFCF – 1,9%. Optimistic scenario: average GDP growth rate is 1,8%, GFCF – 3,5%. 2017-2025: expected average GDP growth rate – 2,0%, GFCF – 3,8%; 2025-2035: GDP growth – 1,5%, GFCF – 2,9%.

Bulgaria’s final electricity consumption in 1980-2015 (fact) and forecast to 2035 – both reference and optimistic scenarios

Reference scenario: substantial electricity consumption growth is not expected, it will amount to as low as 0,6% a year in 2017-2025, and 0,4% – 2025-2035. Electricity consumption surges from 35 to 39 bln kWh, i.e. approximately in 1,11 times or for 4,0 bln kWh. Optimistic scenario: electricity consumption growth will also be insignificant and amount to 0,8% a year in 2017-2025, and 0,6% – 2025-2035. Electricity consumption swells from 35 до 40 bln kWh, i.e. approximately in 1,14 раза or for 5,5 bln kWh.

CONSLUSIONS Bulgaria’s electricity generation substantially outweighs its economic development. GFCF efficiency in Bulgaria’s economy in 2009-2016 is lower than in its neighboring countries. In 2015 Bulgaria’s final electricity consumption made up 0,84 of 1990 and matched the 1981 level.

Bulgaria possesses nearly 40% reserves to meet internal electricity consumption. Bulgaria has no need to expand additional capacities. Major problem is to augment both installed capacity exploitation and power grid facilities to decrease energy losses from 27% to 18% (EU average is 16%)

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