CPP Environmental Scan Academic Senate March 12, 2008 Implications for Strategic Planning Presenter: Don Coan surveyresearch@cox.net

Presentation Outline College-age population and demographic trends California’s economy and budget outlook New student enrollment demand Job growth projections Strategic opportunities and challenges Q & A

Demographic Trends of College-Age Population Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties

The college-age (18 to 24) population will grow more slowly beginning in 2011 high correlation between pop trend and CPP enrollments - trend line is a good predictor of CPP enrollments - as pop. declines, so does CPP, etc. slowing rate of growth beginning 2011- sig. develop which has not been seen in decades

Hispanic is the largest and fastest growing population group among 18 - 24 year olds Region will add over 0.5M persons of college-age changes in college-age pop. varies greatly by ethnic group Hispanic is projected to make the largest numerical gain (from 800K in 2005 to over 1.2M by 2016) White begins to decline in 2011 as does Black slightly Asian and other races (multi-racial and AI) remain stable

Hispanic will comprise almost 60% of college-age (18 - 24) population in 2016 Population = 2.1 Million

Similar historical trend found in CSU More undergraduate women than men are enrolling in college nationally; the gender gap will continue to widen Similar historical trend found in CSU Also true at grad level Gap in csu has also grown Reason is not diff in size of pop, but rather diff in college-going rate

CPP enrolls more undergraduate men than women; gender gap has widened

Implications of demographic trends Slower enrollment growth Decline in first-time freshmen enrollment Increased need for academic support services Opportunity to attract more women into science and technology Hispanics are more likely to be first-generation college students, are less likely to have taken rigorous college-preparatory courses such as algebra II and chemnistry, score lower on standardized college entrance and course placement tests and theref ore are more likely to need remedial instruction the goal of the universoty to reduce the need for remediation will continue to be a sig. challenge in light of the growing number of Hisoanic studnts who are likely to come to CPP - and the no. of Hisp students coming to CPP and % they are of the stuent body has increased in past 5 years

The California Economy The Fiscal Crisis and Budget Outlook

California budget is in crisis $17B estimated budget shortfall Slower economic growth is projected through 2009 $312M proposed budget cut in 2008-09 for CSU CSU response to the budget cut: reduce or stabilize enrollments Hold on to your wallets and jobs! - downturn in economy is affecting everybosy and has become the #1 issue in the presidential race

Implications of the CA economy and budget Slower enrollment growth until budget crisis is resolved Challenge to meet academic needs of students with less state support Need to increase funding of campus operations from other revenue sources (voluntary support; grants and contracts) Program planning: state budget cuts will likely impact how the campus addresses program status and funding recommendations contained in the P&R Phase 2 report Who will take the biggest hit? Will all progams share equally in the pain? How many and what kinds of students will be affected? Deans are empowred to come up with a plan that deals with these questions

Enrollment Demand and Institutional Competition Projections of New Student Demand to 2015

First-time freshmen demand is projected to decline 7 First-time freshmen demand is projected to decline 7.3% between 2007 and 2016 W/O Controls With Controls Fall 2007 (actual) = 3,554 (CA only)

New undergraduate transfer demand is projected to increase 12 New undergraduate transfer demand is projected to increase 12.5% between 2006 and 2010 and then begins to level off Fall 2007 (actual) = 1,398

New graduate student demand is projected to increase 33 New graduate student demand is projected to increase 33.5% between 2006 and 2015 Fall 2007 (actual) = 579

Top 10 Institutional Competitors for Students at “High Ability” Feeder High Schools

Implications of enrollment demand Potential for enrollment decline in the short-term Slow/weak enrollment growth over the next several years Opportunity to expand graduate programs Challenge to compete for higher ability students Competing for higher ability students UC proposed admissins policy: targets low income (black and latino) by waiving elibiity requirement of taking 2 SAT subject exams and lowering H.S. GPA from 3.0 to 2.8 UC systen admissions policy is aimed at top 12.8% of high school graduates - CSU top 1/3rd - proposed change in admissions policy does not fundamentally alter this formulation - the new policy implies that UC will continue to seek higher ability studenets from lower socio-economic minority groups - if policy is approved, this will put further pressure on the CSU to attract higer ability, minority students who might otherwise come to the CSU and CPP also UCLA just announced plans to develop charter and magnet schools in low income areas that will be open to studnts with low test scores, high drop-out rates, and inadequate college readiness - effect will be to create a bridge from these schools to UCLA

Regional Job Growth Projections: 2004 to 2014 Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino Counties

Projected Job Growth in Broad Fields of Study Corresponding to Colleges (2004 - 2014)

Projected Job Growth in Agriculture Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 - 2014)

Projected Job Growth in Environmental Design Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 – 2014)

Projected Job Growth in Hospitality Occupations (2004 - 2014)

Projected Job Growth in Engineering Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 - 2014)

Projected Job Growth in Letters, Arts and Social Science Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 - 2014)

Projected Job Growth in Science Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 – 2014)

Projected Job Growth in Education Occupations (2004 – 2014)

Projected Job Growth in Business Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 - 2014)

12 Fastest “Job Growth” Majors: (2004 – 2014)

Implications of employment projections Long term job prospects in most fields of study are favorable Short term job prospects may be depressed by a weakening economy Highest job growth potential exists in fields of business, education, science, and letters

Strategic Challenges and Opportunities Conclusions Strategic Challenges and Opportunities

Strategic Challenges How to maintain/enhance the quality of academic programs in a time of fiscal constraint How to attract higher ability students in an increasingly competitive environment How to serve more under prepared students How to adjust/adapt/prioritize programs in light of slowing enrollment growth

Strategic Opportunities Expand and nourish graduate programs Increase degree productivity in fields and majors linked to job growth (e.g., Business, Education, Science, and Letters) Brand the institution as a place that offers more women with educational opportunities to pursue science and math careers Increase the educational attainment of Hispanic students and other racial minorities