Multivariable prediction of in-hospital mortality associated with aortic and mitral valve surgery in Northern New England Edward R Nowicki, MD, Nancy.

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Presentation transcript:

Multivariable prediction of in-hospital mortality associated with aortic and mitral valve surgery in Northern New England Edward R Nowicki, MD, Nancy J.O Birkmeyer, PhD, Ronald W Weintraub, MD, Bruce J Leavitt, MD, John H Sanders, MD, Lawrence J Dacey, MD, Robert A Clough, MD, Reed D Quinn, MD, David C Charlesworth, MD, Donato A Sisto, MD, Paul N Uhlig, MD, Elaine M Olmstead, BA, Gerald T O'Connor, PhD, DSc The Annals of Thoracic Surgery Volume 77, Issue 6, Pages 1966-1977 (June 2004) DOI: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2003.12.035

Fig 1 Receiver operating characteristic curves for the (Top) aortic and (Bottom) mitral models. (ROC = receiver operating characteristic; CI = confidence interval.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2004 77, 1966-1977DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2003.12.035)

Fig 2 Observed versus expected deaths for deciles of increasing risk. (Top) Aortic. (Bottom) Mitral. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2004 77, 1966-1977DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2003.12.035)

Fig 3 Relative contribution of predictors to in-hospital mortality. (Top) Aortic. (Bottom) Mitral. (BSA = body surface area; CABG = coronary artery bypass graft; CAD = coronary artery disease; CHF = congestive heart failure; NYHA = New York Heart Association.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2004 77, 1966-1977DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2003.12.035)