The Demographic Transition April Buzby Keene State College 2009 The Demographic Transition Keene State College Human Cultural Mosaic ISGEOG203 Fall ‘09 Professor: Dr. Rydant Created by: April Buzby Supplemental Instructor

April Buzby Keene State College 2009 Introduction Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Represents a nation’s transition through industrialization Commonly involves 4 stages An idealized picture of population change in a country. April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Introduction Population Pyramid Shows the distribution population by age and sex A specific age group (i.e. ages 0-4) is called a cohort. Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably different population pyramids April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 1: Pre-Industrial Period Crude Birth Rate: High Crude Death Rate: High Rate of Natural Increase: Fluctuating Examples: Britain in the 17th and 18th century; some remote Amazon tribes April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 1: Birth Rate Birth Rate is high due to: Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 1: Death Rate Death Rate is high due to: Disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Limited food supply Lack of education April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 1: Population Change Due to high birth and death rates, population is stable. Population Growth Rate: ≤ 1% Doubling Time: ~100 years April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 1: Age Structure Population Pyramid Shape: Concave triangular Age Structure of Population: Rapid fall in each age group due to high death rates Short life expectancy April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 2: Transitional Period Crude Birth Rate: High Crude Death Rate: Decreasing Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing Examples: Britain late 18th Century to mid-19th Century, Kenya April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 2: Birth Rate Birth Rate remains high due to: Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 4.56 People are used to having many children. Takes time for culture to change Religious beliefs April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 2: Death Rate Death Rate decreasing due to: Improved hygiene Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 2: Population Change “Population Explosion" - gap between deaths and births grows wider. England’s Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions. LDC cause of today’s population explosion Population Growth rate: 3% Doubling Time: 18-20 years April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 2: Age Structure Population Pyramid Shape: Triangular Age structure of Population: Growing young dependant population Increasingly youthful age structure Accelerating population growth April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 3: Industrial Period Crude Birth Rate: Decreasing Crude Death Rate: Continues to decrease Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing but at a slower rate Examples: Britain early 20th century; Brazil; Mexico April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 3: Birth Rate Birth Rate decreasing due to: TFR: 2.05 Improvements in contraceptive technology. Changes in values about children and sex. Parents need fewer children. Rising costs of dependent children to a family. Valuation of women beyond motherhood. Working women have less time to devote to child rearing. April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 3: Death Rate Death Rate low due to: Better Health Care Vaccinations Better understanding of the spread of diseases Pre-natal care Improved sanitation (i.e. indoor plumbing) Improved quality and quantity of food April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 3: Population Change Large 15-45 cohort equals continued population growth Population Growth rate: ≤ 1% Doubling Time: 65 years April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 3: Age Structure Population Pyramid Shape: Columnar Age structure of Population: Decreasing TFR Bulge in the reproductive cohorts Narrowing pyramid base April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 4: Post-Industrial Period Crude Birth Rate: Low Crude Death Rate: Low Rate of Natural Increase: Stable Examples: Britain late-20th century; Sweden; Japan April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 4: Birth Rate Birth Rate low due to: TFR: 2.1 Family planning Good health Improved status of women Later marriages April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 4: Death Rate Death Rate low due to: Improved health care High quantity and quality of food supply April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 4: Population Change TFR falls to replacement fertility levels (2.1) Zero Population Growth (ZPG) reached Stable but high population size Population Growth rate: >1% Doubling Time: ~1000 years April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Stage 4: Age Structure Population Pyramid Shape: Inverted Age structure of Population: Characterized by stability. Age structure becomes older. April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

A Fifth Stage? The original Demographic Transition Model has just four stages; however in some cases the fertility rate falls well below replacement level and population decline sets in rapidly. It is theorized that a fifth stage is necessary to account for this demographic stage. Example: Romania CBR: 10.53 CDR: 11.88 TFR: 1.39 Population Growth : -0.147% April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Modern Applicability Generalization from European experience Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth Assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. Assumes that countries will go through all the stages. Some countries may skip stages. Does not account for migration. Does not take into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e.g., the education of women. Some countries are in a demographic trap and can not progress April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

The Human Development Index and the DTM Fertility declines at low and medium Human Development Index (HDI) levels Theorizes that advanced HDI promotes a rebound in fertility. In many countries with very high levels of development (around 0.95) fertility rates are now approaching two children per woman. Example: Netherlands CBR: 12 CDR: 9 TFR: 1.7 Population Growth : 0.7 HDI: 0.953 (9th) April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Conclusion Represents a nation’s transition through industrialization Commonly involves 4 stages An idealized picture of population change in a country. Used to indicate future birth rates, death rates , and the population size of developing countries Generalization from European experience Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably different population pyramids April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Glossary Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the annual number of live births per 1000 people. Crude Death Rate (CDR): the annual number of deaths per 1000 people. Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the annual number of live births per woman from age 15 to 49 years old. Infant Mortality Rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births. Life Expectancy: number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels. Rate of Natural Increase: the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the year found through the equation birth rate (b) – death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r). Doubling Time: the number of years it will take to double the present population given its current rate of population growth. Replacement Fertility: the level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. Population Momentum: the tendency of population growth to continue after the TFR achieves replacement fertility levels. April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Sources CIA World Factbook Domosh , M., Neumann, R.P., Price, P.L., Jodan-Bychkov, T.G., (2009). The human mosaic, eleventh edition. Montgomery, Keith. The demographic transition Myrskyla, M., Kohler, H-P., and Billari, F. Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460, 741-743 (6 August 2009). U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. International Data Base (IDB). United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Human Development Reports. April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009