Time Series Forecasting Accelerator

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Maintenance Forecasting and Capacity Planning
Advertisements

Chapter 11: Forecasting Models
What is Forecasting? A forecast is an estimate of what is likely to happen in the future. Forecasts are concerned with determining what the future will.
T T18-03 Exponential Smoothing Forecast Purpose Allows the analyst to create and analyze the "Exponential Smoothing Average" forecast. The MAD.
Forecasting Demand ISQA 511 Dr. Mellie Pullman.
Forecasting 5 June Introduction What: Forecasting Techniques Where: Determine Trends Why: Make better decisions.
Forecasting Ross L. Fink.
Chapter 12 - Forecasting Forecasting is important in the business decision-making process in which a current choice or decision has future implications:
Data Sources The most sophisticated forecasting model will fail if it is applied to unreliable data Data should be reliable and accurate Data should be.
1 Forecasting BA 339 Mellie Pullman. What is a Forecast? What and why might we wish to forecast?What and why might we wish to forecast?
Chapter 3 Forecasting McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Forecasting Purpose is to forecast, not to explain the historical pattern Models for forecasting may not make sense as a description for ”physical” beaviour.
ForecastingOMS 335 Welcome to Forecasting Summer Semester 2002 Introduction.
Part II – TIME SERIES ANALYSIS C2 Simple Time Series Methods & Moving Averages © Angel A. Juan & Carles Serrat - UPC 2007/2008.
Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Chapter 8 Supplement Forecasting.
Forecasting Purpose is to forecast, not to explain the historical pattern Models for forecasting may not make sense as a description for ”physical” beaviour.
Fall, 2012 EMBA 512 Demand Forecasting Boise State University 1 Demand Forecasting.
Statistics and Modelling 3.8 Credits: Internally Assessed.
1 Demand Planning: Part 2 Collaboration requires shared information.
Chapter 4 Forecasting Mike Dohan BUSI Forecasting What is forecasting? Why is it important? In what areas can forecasting be applied?
Similarity searching modell with Excel Zoltán Varga PhD student SZIU.
Market Analysis & Forecasting Trends Businesses attempt to predict the future – need to plan ahead Why?
Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting. Qualitative Forecasts Survey Techniques Planned Plant and Equipment Spending Expected Sales and Inventory Changes Consumers’
ADJUSTED EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING METHOD Prepared by Dan Milewski November 29, 2005.
COPYRIGHT © 2008 Thomson South-Western, a part of The Thomson Corporation. Thomson, the Star logo, and South-Western are trademarks used herein under license.
1 What Is Forecasting? Sales will be $200 Million!
Forecasting supply chain requirements
Demand Planning: Forecasting and Demand Management CHAPTER TWELVE McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Forecasting Models Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing.
Time Series 1.
Definition of Time Series: An ordered sequence of values of a variable at equally spaced time intervals. The variable shall be time dependent.
Analyse time series data to make a forecast.  Forecast will be based on:  estimates of the trend for the smoothed data  estimates of seasonal effects.
Statistics and Modelling 3.1 Credits: 3 Internally Assessed.
Time-Series Forecasting Overview Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Seasonality.
Forecasting. 預測 (Forecasting) A Basis of Forecasting In business, forecasts are the basis for budgeting and planning for capacity, sales, production and.
Time Series A collection of measurements recorded at specific time intervals.
Modeling Demand Module 7. Conceptual Structure of SIMQ Market Model Firm Demand = Total Industry Demand * Share of Market Firm Demand = Average Firm Demand.
Business Processes Sales Order Management Aggregate Planning Master Scheduling Production Activity Control Quality Control Distribution Mngt. © 2001 Victor.
Review Use data table from Quiz #4 to forecast sales using exponential smoothing, α = 0.2 What is α called? We are weighting the error associated with.
Forecasting.
FORECASTING Kusdhianto Setiawan Gadjah Mada University.
Time Series and Trend Analysis
1 1 Chapter 6 Forecasting n Quantitative Approaches to Forecasting n The Components of a Time Series n Measures of Forecast Accuracy n Using Smoothing.
Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events.
CHAPTER 12 FORECASTING. THE CONCEPTS A prediction of future events used for planning purpose Supply chain success, resources planning, scheduling, capacity.
Time Series - A collection of measurements recorded at specific intervals of time. 1. Short term features Noise: Spike/Outlier: Minor variation about.
1 Decision Making ADMI 6510 Forecasting Models Key Sources: Data Analysis and Decision Making (Albrigth, Winston and Zappe) An Introduction to Management.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Chapter 3 Forecasting.
Time Series Forecasting Trends and Seasons and Time Series Models PBS Chapters 13.1 and 13.2 © 2009 W.H. Freeman and Company.
Forecasting Purpose is to forecast, not to explain the historical pattern Models for forecasting may not make sense as a description for ”physical” behaviour.
Moving average method A quantitative method of forecasting or smoothing a time series by averaging each successive group (no. of observations) of data.
Strategy and Sales Program Planning
TOPIC 15 Time Series.
Supply Chain Management for Non Supply Chain Management Professionals
Forecasting Methods Dr. T. T. Kachwala.
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT for MBAs Fourth Edition
Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting
Fall, 2017 EMBA 512 Demand Forecasting
INTRODUCTION TO FORECASTING
Moving Averages OCR Stage 8.
Moving Averages.
Statistics and Modelling 3.8
Chapter 13 Improved forecasting methods
Forecasting is an Integral Part of Business Planning
OUTLINE Questions? Quiz Results Quiz on Thursday Continue Forecasting
Forecasting.
Chapter 8 Supplement Forecasting.
BUSINESS MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS.
BEC 30325: MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS
Moving Averages.
Presentation transcript:

Time Series Forecasting Accelerator An engine to forecast time series values Uses historical trend, seasonal variations, and cyclical patterns A number of simple and complex models included Multiple dimensions and metrics used for forecast Engine and UI developed on RStudio using the Shiny interface FEATURES Uses 12 different forecast models, such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, neural networks, and ensemble machine learning. Aggregates daily data to weekly, monthly, and yearly. Offers multiple accuracy measures and train/test splits. Calculates forecast estimates and confidence intervals. APPLICATION AREAS Sales Item sales forecasts over time for multiple products and/or categories. Pricing Raw material/commodity pricing trends, forecasts, and seasonal impacts. Other Services Advertising (impressions forecasting), Meteorology (prediction of rain or weather patterns), Finance (stock market prices).