Contributions to global precipitation changes using kernels

Fast precipitation change in CAM4

Stratotemperaturespheric Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds

Stratospheric temperature Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds

Stratotemperaturespheric Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds

Inst Stratospheric temperature Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds

Inst Stratospheric temperature dQ - dSH Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds

Inst Stratospheric temperature dQ - dSH Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat Total rapid adjustment Residual Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds

Only one PDRMIP model, now several Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Stratospheric temperature Total rapid adjustment Stratospheric temperature Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Stratospheric temperature Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Stratospheric temperature Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Stratospheric temperature Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds

Only one PDRMIP model, now several Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Stratospheric temperature Total rapid adjustment Stratospheric temperature Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Stratospheric temperature Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Stratospheric temperature Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Stratospheric temperature Inst Surface temperature Tropospheric temperature Sensible heat dQ - dSH Precipitation Total rapid adjustment Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds

Conclusion on fast precipitation Rapid adjustment of CO2 reduces precipitation Rapid adjustment of BC (and solar experiment) increases precipitation and offset instantaneous atmospheric absorption.

Planck Lapse rate Water vapour Hydrological sensitivity Surface albedo Clouds Total kernel

All 5 drivers, hydrological sensitivity Planck Lapse rate Water vapour Surface albedo Clouds Total kernel Hydrological sensitivity

Summary Conclusion on fast precipitation Rapid adjustment of CO2 reduces precipitation Rapid adjustment of BC (and solar experiment) increases precipitation and offset instantaneous atmospheric absorption. Conclusion on slow precipitation Kernels seem to work reasonable Largest model range for lapse rate, water vapour and cloud changes