The Bull Case By Ken Hodor 11/19/11.

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Presentation transcript:

The Bull Case By Ken Hodor 11/19/11

Purpose of Presentation Present my analysis What am I missing?

What causes markets to turn? Major world events Major US events Market bubbles Fibonacci retracements

Potential World Events to drive markets higher War with Iran last war market went up Low interest rates Inflation Increased corporate revenue—CSCO, IBM, AAPL… Money on sidelines Hedge funds need to be in when Market rises “There are no triple tops” Booming China and India make the rest of world look tiny (they lead markets higher)

Non-Issues Small economies US Banking System—out of the woods? Italy default Spain default Portugal default US Banking System—out of the woods? US Housing market—continues to fall Midwest homes going or $1,500 taxes Manufactured homes 1/10 price of stick homes

Recent SPY movement closeup

From Nov 11 Traders Expo James Altucher market internals all positive Stockpickr.com CycleProphet.com Michael Turner forecast software looks positive

Impending Inflation Government keeping interest rates low They are watching home prices as gauge Missing the underlying commodity price increase Resulting in increased prices Companies raise prices  Increased revenues Increased revenues Stock prices increase Increased prices  income $ increase Increase in Tax revenue

Real Value Falls Based on commodity prices rising Gold Silver Energy However, realize this and make a plan Exponential gain

How to trade it?

What will take market down ???

Conclusion Buy December SPY options with 30 delta If wrong then exit with small loss If right start rolling them up and ride that bull cowboy.