Asheim, L.J., Zabron, C.N., Mwaseba, D. and EIK, L.O. Modeling economics of carbon sequestration in Tanzanian farm production systems SUA/Noragric/NILF

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES 2 SYNOPSIS Production systems in Mgeta and Njombe Challenges, problems and opportunities Method Progress farm modeling (Mgeta) Further model development Parameterization Conclusion Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES 3 Vegetables in very steep slopes or terraces Manual field work that can`t be mechanized Two season cycles are important: Rain:Sept.-May-270days & dry:Jun.-Aug.95days Crop-livestock integrated production system Dairy goats, >1500 of Norwegian breed Pork, indigenous meat goats, and poultry Production System in Mgeta Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES 4 Manual field work – can be mechanized Only one rain season (February-May) More land with opportunities for forests Crop-livestock dominant agricultural system Dairy cows (Friesian, Ayshire, Jersey) Pork, indigenous cows, goats, and poultry Production System in Njombe Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES 5 Tasks: Examine economic and environmental constraints at the farm level, identify and study farm development paths Challenges Climate change, increased population, intensive production systems, reduced land use, competition for water, poverty and malnutrition ! Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Environmentally disastrous production system Agricultural productivity can be increased: Dairy goats and cows can milk more Improved feeding Improved veterinary services Grass and multipurpose trees (MPPT) for: Increased soil carbon sequestration Management of erosion 6 Problems and opportunities (Mgeta) Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES 7 Linear programming (LP) model to identify activities with maximum objective function, not violate constraints, no negative activity Max Z = cx, subject to Axb, x0 Z = objective function, farm gross margin c = a vector of marginal activity gross margins x = a vector of activity levels A = a matrix of activity resource requirements b = a vector of resources e.g land, work h Built in Excel, price level 2012, assumed certainty Method Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES 8 Mgeta Norwegian Agr. Econ. Research Instituet (NILF Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Cropping homestead land (0.28 ha): Tomatoes, potatoes, cabbage, both seasons N-fixing: beans, green peas, both seasons Grass, MPPT, permanent Cropping distant farm land (0.34 ha): Beans and maize, both seasons Grass and MPPT, permanent (haymaking) Both areas: Fruit trees in between 9 Activities (Mgeta) Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Communal land: Grass and MPPT Feed purchase: Maize bran in both seasons Animals: Dairy goats, for milk sale or self-sufficiency Meat goats or pork for meat and manure Laying hens for self-sufficiency 10 Activities cont. Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Using mineral fertilizers and manure for crops Adding cost of land maintenance Hiring workers, dry and rain season Consuming vegetable, dry and rain season 11 Activities cont. Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES 12 Terracing and land maintenance Norwegian Agr. Econ. Research Instituet (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Categories of land according to season Allowable number of fruit trees/ha Allowable amounts of communal land feed Mineral fertilizer < purchased amounts Manure use < farm produced + purchased Intercropping: Potatoes < green peas in both seasons Maize < beans in both seasons 13 Resources Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Energy in feed (MJ) < produced each season Protein in feed (kg AAT) < produced each season Work < available time + hired each season Family energy need (MJ) < produced each season Protein need (kg) < produced each season Vegetable consumed < produced amounts each season 14 Resources Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Options for increased soil C sequestration: Limit vegetable crops (e.g. only for family) Increase grass & MPPT (e.g. 50% of area) More purchased feed adding more manure to soils Is less feeding of crop residues efficient for C sequestration? 15 Further model development Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Policy instruments: subsidies for feed purchase, investment support in yoghurt production payment for permanent grassland & MPPT support for purchase of mineral fertilizers 16 Model development: cont. Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES Mgeta model based on questionnaire to farmers (Cuthibert N. Zabron) Njombe questionnaire (Nina Lande) Other areas (Haydom) and techniques (CA) 17 Model parameterization Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES In Mgeta we basically end up with a study of economics of a changeover from vegetable crop systems to specialized dairy goat and more permant grass systems with MPPT Njombe has not come so far, but it will be dairy cows instead of goats and forest planting for C sequestration is an issue Other areas (Haydom) and techniques (CA) is not decided yet 18 Conclusion Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF) Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES 19 Thanks for listening Norwegian Agr. Econ. Research Instituet (NILF Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)