Task force on victimisation 4. Precision requirements 21-22 June 2010

Main indicators to be estimated One year prevalence victimisation rates by type of crime - for the population 16+, - and three age group breakdowns (16, 24), (25, 59), (60+) Countries grouping 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation

Countries grouping Big countries (population aged 16+ > 5 000 000). 17 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, UK. Medium size countries (1 500 000, 5 000 000). 8 countries Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Slovenia, Slovakia, Small countries (population <1 500 000 ) 5 countries: Cyprus, Estonia, Island, Luxembourg, Malta), 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation 3 3

FIRST SCENARIO 8000, 6000, 5000 11 561 318 Euro P=2 P=5 P=10 P=15 P=30 Half length of the confidence interval (with the assumption of SRS) at the 95% confidence level. 16+ 16-24 25-59 60+ Big Medium Small Meduim P=2 0,307 0,354 0,387 1,711 1,809 1,815 0,409 0,468 0,512 0,822 0,798 0,835 P=5 0,478 0,551 0,603 2,664 2,816 2,825 0,637 0,728 0,797 1,279 1,243 1,300 P=10 0,657 0,759 0,830 1,216 1,286 1,290 0,291 0,332 0,364 0,584 0,567 0,593 P=15 0,782 0,903 0,988 4,365 4,614 4,628 1,044 1,193 1,306 2,096 2,036 2,130 P=30 1,004 1,159 1,267 5,602 5,921 5,940 1,340 1,531 1,676 2,690 2,614 2,733 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation 4 4

SECOND SCENARIO 7000, 6000, 5000 10 544 064 Euro Half length of the confidence interval (with the assumption of SRS) at the 95% confidence level. 16+ 16-24 25-59 60+ Big Medium Small Meduim P=2 0.328 0,354 0,387 1.830 1,809 1,815 0.438 0,468 0,512 0.879 0,798 0,835 P=5 0.511 0,551 0,603 2.848 2,816 2,825 0.681 0,728 0,797 1.368 1,243 1,300 P=10 0.703 0,759 0,830 1.300 1,286 1,290 0.311 0,332 0,364 0.624 0,567 0,593 P=15 0.836 0,903 0,988 4.666 4,614 4,628 1.116 1,193 1,306 2.241 2,036 2,130 P=30 1.073 1,159 1,267 5.989 5,921 5,940 1.433 1,531 1,676 2.876 2,614 2,733 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation 5 5

THIRD SCENARIO 10 000, 6000, 5000 13 595 825 Euro Half length of the confidence interval (with the assumption of SRS) at the 95% confidence level. 16+ 16-24 25-59 60+ Big Medium Small Meduim P=2 0.328 0,354 0,387 1.830 1,809 1,815 0.438 0,468 0,512 0.879 0,798 0,835 P=5 0.511 0,551 0,603 2.848 2,816 2,825 0.681 0,728 0,797 1.368 1,243 1,300 P=10 0.703 0,759 0,830 1.300 1,286 1,290 0.311 0,332 0,364 0.624 0,567 0,593 P=15 0.836 0,903 0,988 4.666 4,614 4,628 1.116 1,193 1,306 2.241 2,036 2,130 P=30 1.073 1,159 1,267 5.989 5,921 5,940 1.433 1,531 1,676 2.876 2,614 2,733 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation 6 6

1-3 summary. Only the big countries sample changes 2nd 10 544 064 Euro 1st 11 561 318 Euro 3rd 13 595 825 Euro Half length of the confidence interval (with the assumption of SRS) at the 95% confidence level. 16+ 16-24 25-59 60+ 2nd 1st 3rd 7000 8000 10000 P=2 0.328 0,307 0.274 1.830 1,711 1.530 0.438 0,409 0.366 0.879 0,822 0.735 P=5 0.511 0,478 0.427 2.848 2,664 2.382 0.681 0,637 0.570 1.368 1,279 1.144 P=10 0.703 0,657 0.588 1.300 1,216 1.088 0.311 0,291 0.260 0.624 0,584 0.522 P=15 0.836 0,782 0.700 4.666 4,365 3.903 1.116 1,044 0.934 2.241 2,096 1.875 P=30 1.073 1,004 0.898 5.989 5,602 5.009 1.433 1,340 1.198 2.876 2,690 2.406 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation 7 7

SUMMARY if the prevalence rate for the subgroup 16-24 is higher than 10% the quality of this indicator not sufficient/poor? oversampling of the population of 16-24 may be desirable 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation 8 8

SUMMARY The improvement of quality of indicators goes slowly with the increase of the sample size, stratified sample- the quality proposed will be achieved with the smaller sample, but countries having clusters more efforts bigger sample needed to “compensate” the design effect. the date is 2013, possible estimation errors for costs (number of missing values), oversampling of the population 16-24 may be needed, the safest and most cost efficient option for the quality requirements seems to be scenario one ? 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation 9 9

Precision requirements 0.8 a maximum half length of confidence interval of the indicator on prevalence rate per type of crime for the population aged 16+. 1.4 a maximum half length of confidence interval for the estimated percentage of victims, per type of crime, for the following population breakdowns: 16-24 years, 25-59 years, 60 years and over. 21-22 June 2010 Task Force on Victimisation 10 10