Multi-physics Multi-IC Ensemble Plan for 2012 Hurricane Season Zhan Zhang and Vijay Tallapragada NCEP/EMC HFIP Regional Ensemble Conference Call March.

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Multi-physics Multi-IC Ensemble Plan for 2012 Hurricane Season Zhan Zhang and Vijay Tallapragada NCEP/EMC HFIP Regional Ensemble Conference Call March 12,

Base Models for Hurricane Ensemble 2012 Operational HWRF (NCO, CCS); – Triple nest domain (27/9/3 km); – 43 vertical levels; – Two Moveable nests. Basin Scale HWRF (EMC/HRD, Jet); – Single basin domain (27Km), covers both AL and EP; – 61 vertical levels; –Continuous runs at 6-hr interval starting on June 1, 2012; –Single static nest over Florida (9km). 2

Candidates for Multi-Physics based on operational 3km HWRF configuration: –MYJ PBL Scheme (J.W. Bao, ESRL, Jet) –NOAH LSM (Bob Tuleya, EMC, Jet) –HWRF-HYCOM (Hyun-Sook Kim, EMC, CCS) Candidates for Multi-Initial Conditions based on operational 3km HWRF configuration : –Assimilation of TDR and modified DA (Mingjing Tong, CCS); –27/9/3 HWRF (43 levels) off of IC/BC from basin-scale HWRF (EMC/HRD, Jet) –27/9/3 HWRF (61 levels) off of IC/BC from basin-scale HWRF (EMC/HRD, Jet) Potential Physics/IC based Ensemble Candidates 3

Carefully choose 10 different IC based perturbations from GEFS and/or EnKF-Hybrid GFS ensemble members; 10 member ensemble to be run on Jet or Zeus (100 cores each member and each storm, subjected to available resources) – Zhan Zhang, EMC, Jet/Zeus Stream 2 Ensemble Candidates for 27/9 HWRF based on GEFS/EnKF-Hybrid 4

Ensemble Products Track/intensity ensemble forecasts based on KDE method; Max Wind Speed Strike Probability; All 3D fields based on the best ensemble identified by the KDE; Cyclone Genesis info from Basin Scale runs. 5