Implications, adaptations & policies

Based on…..

Where are we in the programme? Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks/aquaculture species Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

Economic development

Outline Revisit changes in tuna distribution Framework for adaptations Win-win adaptations Supporting policies

Skipjack projection Cook Islands ~ 10% Cook Islands ~ 15% Source: Bell et al. 2013

Adaptation decision framework Addresses climate change Long-term Loss Long-term Gain Lose-Lose X Lose-Win Win-Win x Near-term Loss Addresses present drivers Win-Lose Near-term Gain After Grafton (2010)

‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Adaptations L-W W-W L-L W-L ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Cap and trade provisions of VDS enable all PNA members to receive some benefits during ENSO events, regardless of where tuna are concentrated La Niña Ask El Niño Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1997)

‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Adaptations L-W W-W L-L W-L ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Allocation of vessel days is adjusted regularly Ask 2050 S 2100 Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)

Adaptations Immediate conservation measures for tuna L-W W-W L-L W-L Immediate conservation measures for tuna Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and preventing overfishing of other tuna, will: maintain stocks at healthy levels make these valuable species more resilient to climate change Bigeye tuna

Other adaptations Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in the cyclone belt Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent inundation by rising sea levels and more severe cyclones

Suggested supporting policies Promote access agreements that are clear for all stakeholders Include implications of climate change in management objectives of WCPFC Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level catch and effort data to improve tuna models Develop further measures to reduce capture of bigeye tuna by purse-seine Develop tuna products and distribution channels that minimise CO2 emissions

Food security

Outline Win-win adaptations Supporting policies Factors affecting availability of fish for food Reef area, ciguatera, climate change Implications for food security Win-win adaptations Supporting policies

Contributions of fish to food security Cook Islands Rarotonga Outer islands 25 kg 60 kg There are other sources of protein, but need to consider protein consumption . Household income expenditure survey 35 kg per person per year recommended for good nutrition

Fish needed User group Population Fish consumption Fish needed (tonnes) Rarotonga 13,000 35 kg/year 455 Tourists (p.a.) 120,000 1 kg 120 Other islands 3,000 60 kg/year 180 Total 755

Potential coastal fish production Location Reef area (km2) Sustainable yield* Rarotonga ~22 ~65 tonnes/year Outer islands 645 >1900 tonnes/year X * Based on 3 tonnes per km2 per year Ciguatera

Sources of fish for Rarotonga and tourists Reef fish from outer islands Large pelagic fish from tuna vessels and local fishers Photo: Marc Taquet

Sources of fish

Effects of climate change on fish supply 2035 (-2 to -5%) 2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%) Today

Effects of climate change on supply Ciguatera Dead coral & seaweed surfaces Nutrients Water temperature From land-based activities and sewage

Adaptations L-W W-W L-L W-L Incentives for longline vessels to deliver fish to Rarotonga

Adaptations L-W W-W L-L W-L Increase access to tuna with anchored inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)

Adaptations Improve post-harvest methods L-W W-W L-L W-L Solar fruit dryer... Example Photo: Jocelyn Carlin

Adaptations Sustain production of coral reef fish L-W W-W L-L W-L Sustain production of coral reef fish Maintaining spawning adults will help ensure replenishment and build resilience of key species Photo: Eric Clua

Adaptations Reduce and diversify catches of demersal fish L-W W-W L-L W-L Greater focus on herbivorous fish

Adaptations Reduce risk of ciguatera with good reef management Avoid sending poisoned fish to Rarotonga

Adaptations Manage catchment vegetation and minimise nutrient runoff L-W W-W L-L W-L Manage catchment vegetation and minimise nutrient runoff Improves resilience of coral reefs

Adaptations Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic species ? L-W W-W L-L W-L Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic species ? Photo: Nathalie Behring

Adaptations Aquaponics with Nile tilapia

Suggested supporting policies Include FADs as part of the national infrastructure for food security Use licensing conditions to ensure delivery of fish from longline vessels to Rarotonga Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to reef fish stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment Promote freshwater aquaculture Strengthen governance of agriculture and tourist development to safeguard coral reefs and water quality

Livelihoods

Outline Adaptations Trends in pearl production Effects of climate change Adaptations

The challenge Value $

Potential impacts on pearl farming Poorer survival of spat due to ocean acidification Reduced pearl quality because nacre is composed of aragonite Effects of warmer water on nacre quality Problems due to more intense cyclones and increased stratification (e.g. deoxygenation) BUT rise in sea level may improve flushing of lagoons Photo: Leanne Hunter

Adaptations Use online forecasts Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Online portal to deliver seasonal forecasts for the Western Pacific under development Advance warning of potential extreme temperature events http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/projects

Adaptations Selective breeding to resist effects of ocean acidification

Adaptations Improved monitoring to identify best sites

Adaptations Grow pearls at greater depth for final nacre Photo: Leanne Hunter

Suggested supporting policies Specify maximum oyster density and minimum distance between farms Set minimum quality standards of pearls Invest in environmental monitoring programmes Seek development partners for hatchery and selective breeding of pearl oysters

Conclusions Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities Supporting policies and investments are needed Integrate adaptations and policies into national strategies and action plans for climate change