Target Setting for Child Outcomes Conference Call October 30, 2009

Today we will discuss Baseline data trends Data analysis to help set targets Involving stakeholders Target data trends Improvement planning

The Summary Statements Of those children who entered or exited the program below age expectations in each Outcome, the percent who substantially increased their rate of growth by the time they exited the program. The percent of children who were functioning within age expectations in each Outcome by the time they exited the program.

What is due in February, 2010? In Feb, 2010 SPP/APR report, states: Establish baseline for C3/B7 Calculate 2 summary statements based on your a-e progress categories Baseline must (and can only) include all children who exited between 7/1/08 and 6/30/09 Set targets for FFY 2009 and FFY 2010 Targets for FFY 2009 can be lower than baseline Targets for FFY 2010 must be higher than baseline

APR Reporting Feb, 2011 Report actual data Compare actual data to FFY 2009 targets and discuss progress or slippage HAVE THE OPTION to revise baseline using actual data reported in 2011 if the state believes the original baseline was inaccurate If you revise baseline, you MUST provide rationale for revising If you revise baseline, you may also revise targets for FFY 2010 based on new baseline

Baseline and Targets: Typical Timelines

OR Baseline and Target can be Revised in Feb, 2011

Reasons for Expected State Variation States have different eligibility criteria Some states may not yet have representative data (phasing in outcomes data collection) Some states are still working on improving data quality

Looking at data by local program e.g. “e” category and SS2

Looking at data by local program e.g. “b” category and SS1

Comparing by Eligibility Category

Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Summarize across local programs

Early Childhood Outcomes Center Summary of Outliers in Local System Data Local ID (N) A low A high B low B high C low C high A SS1 lo A SS1 hi A SS2 lo A SS2 hi B SS1 lo B SS1 hi B SS2 lo B SS2 hi C SS1 lo C SS1 hi C SS2 lo C SS2 hi 1 (152) 2 (61) x 3 (52) 4 (37)   5 (50) 6 (76) 7 (47) 8 (33) 9 (30) 10 (45) 11 (127) 12 (69) 13 (42) 14 (152) 15 (74) Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Possible Reasons for Outliers “bad data”-Not using data collection tools appropriately “good data”- serving different population of children “good data”- related to different program practices

ECO/NECTAC Resources re: target setting Summary statement calculator -- http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/pages/summary.cfm National Conference calls http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/pages/archive.cfm Conference Call on Summary Statements - June 9, 2009 Conference Call on Target Setting - June 16, 2009 Conference Call on Updating SPP/APR Indicators – August 13, 2009 Suggested format for Feb 2010 SPP/APR: http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/pages/fed_req.cfm#UpdatingSPPIndicators

ECO/NECTAC Resources re: target setting Individualized TA with states: Supporting states in preparing for stakeholder discussions on target setting Supporting states in looking at their data in various ways Resources: Looking at State data: http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/ppt/4-statedata.ppt Playing with data: http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/xls/SummaryStatements-PLAY.xls

Resources for Stakeholder Groups Overview PPT titled “Opening”: includes overview to why report outcomes data, the 3 outcome areas, the 5 progress categories, target setting http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/ppt/1-opening.ppt PPT titled “Summary Statements”: http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/ppt/2-summarystatements-settingtargets.ppt PPT titled “EIA”: interpreting data and planning improvement activities http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/ppt/3-EIA.ppt

Baseline and Targets: Typical Timelines

OR Baseline and Target can be Revised in Feb, 2011

Comments? Reactions? Questions?