Public opinion Chapter 6

Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Learning Objectives 6.1 Decide why public opinion is powerful 6.2 Describe how well polls measure public opinion 6.3 Identify who drives public opinion—citizens or elites 6.4 Discover how ideology and partisanship shape public opinion 6.5 Describe how demographic characteristics influence public opinion Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Power of Public Opinion 1 of 2 The Power of Presidential Approval Approval rating What Is Public Opinion? Expressed through voting The Public’s Support of Government Efficacy Political trust L.O. 6.1: Decide why public opinion is powerful. approval rating: Job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and is typically reported as a percentage. public opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials. efficacy: Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government. political trust: Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Power of Public Opinion 2 of 2 Standing in the Control Room, President Obama watches the unfolding of events after ordering the assassination of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Approval Ratings of President Barack Obama, 2009-2016 Figure 6.1 Presidents’ approval ratings generally decline during their time in office, but President Obama’s popularity experienced a brief surge after the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Millennials have a higher approval of the president than older Americans. Source: Gallup, http://www.gallup.com/poll/121199/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Demographic-Group.aspx Key Question Were President Obama’s policies responsive to public opinion? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls 1 of 4 Gauging Public Opinion in the Past Scientific Polling and the Growth of Survey Research Gallup’s random sample U.S. government survey research 1940s President Kennedy first to make use of polls L.O. 6.2: Public Opinion Polls: Decide how well polls measure public opinion. random sample: Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included. Key Question How do public officials learn what citizens think? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls 2 of 4 Presidents – such as Franklin D. Roosevelt, depicted here – often got their information on public opinion by reading the newspaper. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls 3 of 4 Types of Polls Tracking Exit Push Error in Polls Confidence interval The Future of Polls Telephone surveys affected by cell phones tracking polls: Polls that seek to gauge changes of opinion of the same sample size over a period of time, common during the closing months of presidential elections. exit polls: Polls that survey a sample of voters immediately after exiting the voting booth to predict the outcome of the election before the ballots are officially counted. push polls: Polls that are designed to manipulate the opinions of those being polled. confidence interval: Statistical range, with a given probability, that takes random error into account. nonattitudes: Sources of error in public opinion polls in which individuals feel obliged to give opinions when they are unaware of the issue or have no opinions about it. Key Questions Are polls the best way to find out what the public thinks? Have you ever looked at a poll and questioned its validity? How might you gauge a poll’s validity? Do polls make sure the people’s voices are heard? Should public officials be influenced by polls? Do all Americans have an equal chance of being included in polls? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion Polls 4 of 4 President Harry Truman holding up a newspaper proclaiming that he lost the 1948 presidential election to Thomas Dewey. The Tribune’s polls were wrong, and Truman had actually won. W. Eugene Smith/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

What Drives Public Opinion? 1 of 2 Social and Political Environment Socialization Independents Generational Effects The Great Depression Same-sex marriage Millennials L.O. 6.3: Identify who drives public opinion- citizens or elites. socialization: Impact and influence of one’s social environment on the views and attitudes one carries in life, a primary source of political attitudes. Independents: Individuals who do not affiliate with either of the major political parties. Millennials: Generation born between 1982 and 2003. Key Questions How do individuals form their political opinions? Have your political opinions ever changed? If so, what led to the change? What are the sources of public opinion? Does every citizen have an equal chance to be heard? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

What Drives Public Opinion? 2 of 2 Self-Interest and Rationality Families interested in education policy Elites Undue influence? Often disagree amongst themselves self-interest: Concern for one’s own advantage and well-being. rationality: Acting in a way that is consistent with one’s self-interest. Key Questions What are the sources of public opinion? Does every citizen have an equal chance to be heard? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Shift in Public Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Figure 6.2 Respondents were asked: Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally? Source: http://www.pewforum.org/2015/07/29graphics-slideshow-changing-attitudes-on-gay-marriage Source: http://features.pewforum.org/same-sex-marriage-attitudes/slide2.php Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Shape of Public Opinion 1 of 2 Partisanship or party identification Allegiance to a political party Predictor of attitude on a range of issues Ideology Liberals tend to be Democrats Conservatives tend to be Republicans Moderates Levels of conceptualization L.O. 6.4: Discover how ideology and partisanship shape public opinion. Party identification: Psychological attachment to a political party; partisanship. political ideology: Set of coherent political beliefs that offers a philosophy for thinking about the scope of government. liberals: Individuals who have faith in government to improve people’s lives, believing that private efforts are insufficient. In the social sphere, liberals usually support diverse lifestyles and tend to oppose any government action that seeks to shape personal choices. conservatives: Individuals who distrust government, believing that private efforts are more likely to improve people’s lives. In the social sphere, conservatives usually support traditional lifestyles and tend to believe that government can play a valuable role in shaping personal choices. moderates: Individuals who are in the middle of the ideological spectrum and do not hold consistently strong views about whether government should be involved in people’s lives. levels of conceptualization: Measure of how ideologically coherent individuals are in their political evaluations. Key Question Does party loyalty shape public opinion? How does party identification relate to ideology? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Trends in Partisanship Among Millennials Figure 6.4 Among Millennials, Democrats have held a steady lead over Republicans during the past decade. Source: 1999-2014 Pew Party Identification trends, Pew Political Surveys, January-July 2015 Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Liberal Policy Mood of Americans, 1952-2016 Figure 6.5 The policy mood of Americans is rarely fixed, moving toward liberalism following George W. Bush’s election in 2000 and then toward conservatism following Barack Obama’s election in 2008. Source: http://kelizabethcoggins.com/mood-policy-agendas/ Source: Adapted from James Stimson, “Policy Mood,” accessed January 17, 2014, http://www.unc.edu/~jstimson /Welcome.html. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Shape of Public Opinion 2 of 2 Is the Public Informed? Fewer than half know the name of their own congressional representative Yet voters hold their legislators accountable Know candidate’s views on salient issues Is the Public Polarized? Congress has become more polarized Worries of public incivility polarization: Condition in which differences between parties and/ or the public are so stark that disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and controversy. Key Questions How coherent is public opinion? Is the public becoming more liberal or more conservative? How can you tell? Is public opinion worth listening to? Should elected official care about public opinion? How much information does the public need to possess to make self-government possible? Does polarization prevent good policy making? Do political parties influence public opinion, or is it the other way around? How would you explain the fact that political trust has declined in recent decades, yet interest in elections has increased? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

How Polarization Works Figure 6.6 When the parties are polarized, they move toward the tail of these distributions. When parties are depolarized, they adopt positions near each other. Currently the parties are polarized, but that was not the case in the 1970s. Source: John G. Geer/Cengage Learning Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Party Polarization 1879-2015 Figure 6.7 Since 1975, polarization in the U.S. Congress has been on the rise. Source: http://www.voteview.com/political_polarization.asp. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Group Differences 1 of 3 Socioeconomic Status Occupation, education, income, wealth, lifestyle Political parties have a class bias Age People become more conservative as they age Religion Influence of Roe v. Wade decision L.O. 6.5: Describe how demographic characteristics influence public opinion. Key Questions Does being a member of a demographic group shape opinion? Is your political opinion shaped by your social class, age, religion, gender, race and ethnicity, and/or education level? Does being a member of a demographic group shape public opinion? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Differences of Opinion on Abortion Among Religious Groups, 2014 Abortion should be… Legal in (most) All Cases Illegal in (most) All Cases Mainline Protestant 60% 35% Evangelical Protestant 33% 63% Historically Black Protestant 52% 42% Catholic 48% 47% Jewish 83% 15% Muslim 55% 37% Unaffiliated 73% 23% Total 53% 43% Table 6.1 Source: Pew Survey July 2013 Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Group Differences 2 of 3 Gender Political gender gap emerged in 1980s Women became more supportive of democrats Women more liberal than men Race and Ethnicity 77% of blacks and 53% of whites favored affirmative action in 2015 Political opinion divided among Latinos Asian Americans more liberal than white Americans gender gap: Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women. Key Questions: Is your political opinion shaped by your social class, age, religion, gender, race and ethnicity, and/or education level? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Latino Electorate Projected to Grow in Key States Figure 6.8 Both parties need to find ways to reach out to Latino voters if they want to win elections in the coming years. Source: http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608 Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Group Differences 3 of 3 Education Today, more than one in three Americans have attended college More access Generational replacement Generational replacement refers to the idea that older, less-educated citizens have passed on, and the average level of education of the American public has thus increased. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Percentage of Population with Bachelor’s Degree, 1940-2015 Figure 6.9 Since the end of World War II, education levels have steadily increased. Level of education is a factor affecting public opinion on a range of specific issues. Source: National Center for Education Statistics Key Questions: Think again: does being a member of a demographic shape public opinion? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Public Opinion and Democracy Elections express the public’s will Public officials stay in touch through public opinion polls Some say connection between opinion and policy is weak Politicians adopt views that will not arouse electorate’s anger Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.