Parental background and young adults’ homeownership, 1971-2011 Rory Coulter (rcc46@cam.ac.uk) Department of Sociology, University of Cambridge GSR/GES Annual Training Conference, London, 18th September 2015

Housing and social mobility Much debate about how the housing system is changing Particular focus on young adults and falling owner-occupation Concern about impacts on social mobility But evidence about this is poor Important to know more about whether parental background has become increasingly critical for young adults’ homeownership over time Source: CLG/NatCen analysis of the English Housing Survey (2015)

Covers a long timeframe (historical and individual) Why is the LS useful? Covers a long timeframe (historical and individual) can compare long-term housing ‘outcomes’ across cohorts Relational: can link people who live(d) together can examine how housing outcomes later in life vary by attributes of parents as measured during childhood Large sample with low attrition can disaggregate by gender and control for a wide range of individual characteristics greater confidence results not biased by selective dropout

Using the LS: An example RQ: Is parental housing tenure associated with young adults’ homeownership aged 30-34, and has this association changed over time? Approach: Compare ‘Baby Boomers’ with ‘Generation X’ Cohort Born Census when 10-14 (parental home) Census when 30-34 (outcome) N Baby Boom ‘56-’61 1971 1991 26903 Generation X ‘76-’81 2011 19665

Descriptive results

Explanations for changing odds ratios? 1. Means and opportunity Family support increasingly necessary for entering home ownership, and parents who own tend to have access to greater resources (from equity and work) 2. Changing composition of social tenants 1971-91 Social renters became an increasingly disadvantaged group as homeownership expanded (Right to Buy) 3. Changes in young people’s educational and working lives Children from less advantaged backgrounds do less well in education and work, and how family background shapes these attainments may have changed over time We must examine whether tenure background still matters when controlling for a range of other parental attributes, individual characteristics and contextual variables (eg. house prices)

Model estimates

Summary and conclusions Intergenerational associations in homeownership are strong and persistent Consequences for wealth distribution and social mobility The negative association between parental tenancy and child homeownership has strengthened over time BUT this trend can be (mostly) explained by controlling for (a) other parental attributes, (b) young adult characteristics and (c) contextual conditions The LS can tell us much about long-term trends in social mobility and how these are linked to the housing system

Acknowledgements This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council Future Research Leaders award [ES/L0094981/1]. Additional financial support has been provided by the Isaac Newton Trust. The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme under project ES/K000365/1. I bear sole responsibility for all analyses and interpretations of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.