NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues When we review policy issues we ask: How will this policy issue affect economic growth and jobs? How will this policy issue affect the budget deficit, both now and in the future? We have spent a lot of time examining economic and jobs growth and budget issues at the national level We started looking at the Illinois budget more in 2015 So how is the U.S. economy doing? How are we doing with the federal budget deficit?

Fiscal and Economic Issues Discussion Group April 2017 Meeting NWSOFA Introductions of Presenters and Participants

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues NWSOFA Resources http://www.nwsofa.org/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/nws4obama/ https://www.facebook.com/nwsofa/?fref=ts https://connect.barackobama.com/groups/181/ NWSOFA https://connect.barackobama.com/groups/41/ Economic Opportunity https://my.barackobama.com/page/event/search_simple?source=events-redirect To find our next meeting https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I16PAS0r42RAJXF4JH-Q0XLto-gsCLRwMl15ulYFGIs/edit?usp=sharing Analyses of presidential candidates’ policy proposals

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues How people view the direction of their personal situation 87% in Jan 2017

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Perception on Direction of the Country is not good

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Why it isn’t full recovery yet, i. e NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Why it isn’t full recovery yet, i.e. the U-6 Unemployment Rate Historical Range (1994-2007) vs. December 2016 Level March 2017 = 8.9%, i.e. still slack in the labor market

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Why it isn’t full recovery yet, i. e NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Why it isn’t full recovery yet, i.e. the U-6 Unemployment Rate

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues The graphs we usually see from the White House (and OFA). Is the country going in the right direction? Most people can’t tell from these graphs. January 2017 = +238,000 jobs; February 2017 = + 235,000 jobs

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues The graphs we should see – GDP trending up for 7.5 years, jobs for over 6.75 years Is the economy going in the right direction? Yes !!

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues The Federal Budget Deficit – The issue is increasing deficits in future years https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52370-outlook.pdf

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52370-outlook.pdf

Fiscal Year 2016 Budget Results

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Fiscal Year Totals (billions of dollars) Bush Budget Years    |           Obama Budget Years             2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Receipts 2,524 2,105 2,163 2,303 2,449 2,774 3,021 3,249 % of GDP 17.0% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9% 15.3% 16.7% 17.5% 18.3% Outlays 2,983 3,518 3,457 3,603 3,538 3,454 3,506 3,759 20.1% 24.4% 23.5% 23.3% 22.1% 20.8% 20.3% 20.7% Deficit -459 -1,413 -1,294 -1,300 -1,089 -680 -485 -439 -3.1% -9.8% -8.8% -8.4% -6.8% -4.1% -2.8% -2.5%

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Job Growth in Illinois

At the state level, Illinois’ spending is not high http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/per-capita-state-spending/?currentTimeframe=0&selectedDistributions=per-capita-state-spending Notes Data are for state fiscal year 2015 and include general fund, federal funds, other state funds, and bonds. Sources KCMU calculations based on adjusted data collected in the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) State Expenditure Report: Examining Fiscal 2014-2016 State Spending, November 2016; and the U.S. Census Bureau Resident Population Data, 2015.

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Illinois’ Alleged Spending Spree with the Higher Income Tax Rates

Illinois Spending High Spending is at the Local Level http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/state_spending_2015ILbn

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues The 5th most regressive state and local tax structure in the country

Governor’s Plan vs. Civic Federation Plan

Illinois Policy Institute Recommendations

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues 2014 job growth was +87,200. 2015 job growth was +81,600. 2016 job growth was +18,900.

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues The IL economy that Rauner wanted to “turnaround” In 2014, the year before Governor Rauner took office, Illinois added 87,200 jobs per the Establishment survey, unemployment declined by 2.1% and employment increased by 94,701 per the Household Survey. The job gains were the 2nd best year since 1998, trailing only 2012. The employment gains were the best since 2006. For 2015 under Governor Rauner jobs were up 81,600, unemployment is up 0.1% and employment is up 48,203. In 2016 jobs were up 18,900, unemployment declined by 0.4% and employment increased by 45,004. So Governor Rauner is accomplishing a “turnaround”—a negative “turnaround” Our last real (negative) turnaround governor was George Ryan (Jan 1999 - Jan 2003) who presided over a 110,532 person decline in the labor force, a 252,273 person decline in employment, and a loss of 86,400 jobs in the Establishment survey. (Dec 1998 - Dec 2002) By contrast under Blagojevich and Quinn we increased the labor force by 221,523, increased employment by 234,954, and increased jobs by 46,100. (Dec 2002 - Dec 2014)