Harry Nelson Associate Professor

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Presentation transcript:

The Ripple-down Effects of the Softwood Lumber Dispute: likely impacts along the supply chain Harry Nelson Associate Professor Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia Western Forestry Contractor Association Annual Conference Kelowna, BC February 7-9, 2018

What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber?

What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber? “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” George Santayana, American Philosopher, Harvard University 1905

What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber? “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” George Santayana, American Philosopher, Harvard Univerty 1905

Overview How Lumber V could ripple throughout the chain And over time Additional source of information https://edc.trade/canada-lumber/ https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42789.pdf

Other trends Harvest Policy? ?

Historic softwood lumber prices

Peaks in the Past Decade and a Half https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/forestry/forest-industry-economics/weekly-prices/weekly-price-report_2018-2-2.pdf

Past Year: Weekly Lumber Prices in North America

Price Summary Historically High Prices Today Tariffs being Passed Through to US Consumers

What next? Previous experience Are the politics or economics any different?

Other Trends: Harvest

Harvest Trends Downward-midterm timber supply pressures Recent wildfires & potential increase in fire/disturbances

Policy Data Source Responsibility Reported Forecasted Licensee Calendar Year Licensee BCTS & FSMF Enhanced Basic FFT LCEF 2017 Fire s108 Other Total 2000 170 30 8 208 2001 179 31 9 219 2002 160 32 5 197 2003 165 7 202 2004 158 29 1 6 193 2005 161 34 3 21 2006 178 50 2 18 248 2007 201 48 4 262 2008 57 242 2009 130 45 15 198 2010 112 40 176 2011 131 42 20 199 2012 164 37 27 234 2013 166 33 233 2014 168 36 28 237 2015 175 239 2016 26 2017 190 49 267 2018 187 47 260 2019 182 12 269 Data Source Responsibility Reported Forecasted Licensee RESULTS query Sept 18, 2017 SPAR sowing requests were used for 2017 and 2018. Using the 2018 value as a start point, calculated using the forecasted change in Provincial AAC reported in the Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch September 2017 harvest flow forecast. BCTS & FSMF

Implications Growing Disturbance Risks Harvest arrow down Economic capacity arrow turning down (downturn) Growing Disturbance Risks

How might it ripple through Unknowns (to me) Business models? Existing stresses in supply chain? Investment needs?

How might it ripple through? Unknowns (to me) Business models? Existing stresses in supply chain? Investment needs? Weekly Earnings, in Canada by Sector, in CDN$ including overtime (nominal) 2001 2016 % increase Support activities for forestry $ 771 $ 976 27% Logging $ 844 $ 1,186 41% Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction $ 1,153 $ 2,039 77% Wood product manufacturing $ 707 $ 1,013 43%

And the unknown unknowns…

Summary Negative trends Silver lining rests in concerted strategic and sustained policy direction Supported by business coordination