Harry Nelson Associate Professor

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Hardwood Resource Ownership, Location, and Supply Issues Glenn Ahrens Oregon State University Extension Forester.
Advertisements

Woodmarket in Germany Presentation on the conference „Woodmarket in Poland - towards stabilization“ Poznan 4th december 2007.
CANFOR CORPORATION University of Victoria Student Research CFA Institute Research Challenge 2012.
Oregon Board of Forestry ’ s Federal Forestlands Advisory Committee, November 5, 2007 Ted L. Helvoigt ECONorthwest.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE Sixtieth session, September 2002 Pulp and Paper Timber Committee forecasts by Mr. Kit Prins Expert presentation by Dr. Peter.
Outlook for Australia’s forestry and forest products industry
Environmental Issues of CANADA. Environmental Issues Acid Rain Pollution of Great Lakes Extraction and use of Natural resources on Canadian Shield Timber.
Larry Arnett, Deputy Commissioner Department for Natural Resources Steve Kull, Assistant Director Division of Forestry Environmental Quality Commission.
WOOD 120 “Topics in Forestry” 1. 2 Global Distribution of Forests
Roles for Commodity Production in Sustaining Forests & Rangelands J. Keith Gilless Professor of Forest Economics UC Berkeley.
Coast Forest Products Association Presentation to: Select Standing Committee on Finance and Government Services September 17, 2012 Surrey, B.C. 1.
FRST 318 / 537C March 3 rd Lab Midterm Review. Question 1 Governments in North America announce that wood is a preferred building material because it.
Class 4a: Natural Resources and the Economy
Assessment of Quotas, Tariffs and Taxes on the U.S. - Canada Softwood Lumber Dispute Patrick Shannon March 10, 2008 ECON 543.
Class 4a: Natural Resources and the Economy Primary economic activity Resource-based economies (Gabon) Agriculture and trade (Chile)
FEBRUARY Global economic growth: no decoupling (Real GDP, % change) World U.S Japan
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports Exports Wausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004 Photo: APA Global Outlook: Supply & Demand for Wood Products.
Society of Wood Science and Technology Convention November 2008, Concepción, Chile Global Trade of Wood and Paper Products By Ed Pepke Forest Products.
2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement: History & Overview Western Forest Economists Wemme, May 8, 2007 Lois McNabb Economics and Trade Branch B.C. Ministry of.
Development and Prospective Role of the EU Dairy Chain in the Global Market after Ending of Quotas Erhard Richarts, ife Institut Kiel 20. Mai, 2014 DAIRY.
WOOD 120 “Topics in Forestry” 1. 2 Global Distribution of Forests
Forestry Industry in Canada 4:25 mins What is logging? Basically,
Best Practices in Communications Forum Vancouver, Canada, 6-8 October 2002 Photo: APA Global Outlook—Supply & Demand for Wood Products By Ed Pepke Forest.
Canadian Economy Unit 7. Economic Essentials Economics studies the production, exchange, and consumption of goods and services, all of which involve the.
Economic Systems Factors of Production Scarcity and Wants/Needs
Institute for Sustainable Forestry ISF State of Sustainability Report Delusions of Viability? Meeting Community Forestry Goals.
June 30, 2011 PRT Forest Regeneration Income Fund Corporate & Investor Update.
FORESTRY. What is forestry? Although there are important woodland areas in middle latitudes, such as the Black Forest of Germany, the main forest belts.
Dominik Roser, Ph.D. Advanced Bioeconomy Feedstocks Conference June 9-10, 2015 New Orleans British Columbia and Biomass Availability.
Where are the forests of the world?. Where are forests in Canada?
Pulp, Paper and Paperboard Markets Gradual Upturn Underway after Recent Downturn UNECE Market Discussion, September 2002.
ECONOMIC GUIDING LINES OF FOREST SECTOR DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLANNING Anatoly Petrov, rector, Professor, Dr.Ec.Sc. All-Russian Institute of Continuous.
Potential for Biomass Energy Development in South Carolina Tim Adams Resource Development Director South Carolina Forestry Commission.
1 Timber Supply Impacts of Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) in British Columbia, Canada Western Forest Economists May 8 th, 2007.
«Опыт малого лесопиления в странах Центральной Европы и Северной Америки применительно к условиям Дальневосточного региона» ВЛАДО БУТОРА Президент компании.
The 2002 Farm Bill: Implications for North American Trade Relationships North American Trade Relationships:Policy Challenges for 2002 and Beyond Chicago.
China: Modeling Trade Scenarios for Forest and Forest Products Steven Northway and Gary Bull 20 September 2006 University of British Columbia, Vancouver,
1 Energy Security and Sustainable Mobility: Possible? Jatin Nathwani Professor and Ontario Research Chair in Public Policy and Sustainable Energy Management.
Globalisation of forest products markets Marc Boutin Quebec Lumber Manufacturers ’ Association October 2, 2001QLMA.
Red Alder Export from the US Dr. Ivan Eastin Director, CINTRAFOR College of Forest Resources, UW Presented at the: Western Hardwood Association Annual.
DRAFT – Mar 1/06 Is China Taking Over the World? International Law of the American Bar Association 2006 Spring Meeting April 6, 2006 Shirley-Ann George,
EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 10 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session SOFTWOODS: SAWNWOOD AND LOGS Secretariat introduction.
Pallet Lumber: Supply Issues and Outlook Western Pallet Association Don Haid Markets and Economic Research January 22, 2006.
Group Handout Atlas Copco Group – September 30 th 2000 The face of interaction.
1 Commodity price increases: causes, effects and policy responses G20 Conference on Commodity Price Volatility Istanbul, 13 th September 2011 Jonathan.
Azeus Machinery Co.ltd Website:
CANFOR CORPORATION University of Victoria Student Research CFA Institute Research Challenge 2012.
Atlas Copco Group Q results January 31, 2013
2015 RPA Update: Forest Carbon Projections for the United States
The New Economics of Oil and Gas: Implications for Texas and the U.S.
Professor Steven Kyle Cornell University December 13, 2016
Forestry Part 4.
GROWTH AND CRISIS IN THE Globalization and the Collapse of Trade
Sectors of industry.
Light Detection & Ranging (LiDAR) – Enhanced Forest Inventory
WOOD 120 “Topics in Forestry”
Professor Steven Kyle Cornell University November 10, 2016
Impacts of a Tariff on the U.S.-Canadian Softwood Lumber Trade
The four Tier Model We can also break industries into the following sectors: 1) Primary Industries 2) Secondary Industries 3) Tertiary Industries 4) Quaternary.
SOME ASPECTS OF FOREST ECONOMICS RESEARCH
Section 3 – Resources & Land Use
Will present results from a combination of market related studies, trials and demonstration sites, grower adoption surveys Example of tea! EXPERIENCES.
Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) Modeling Sub-group An introduction to ENERGY 2020 April 26, 2007.
Global Outlook—Supply & Demand for Wood Products
Class 4a: Natural Resources and the Economy
Inclusive corporate tax reform
Main results and conclusions of the
Atlas Copco Group Q results October 24, 2012.
Climate Change and Canadian Agriculture and Forests
Vietnam Rubber Industry: current situation and prospect for sustainable development Vietnam rubber association.
Presentation transcript:

The Ripple-down Effects of the Softwood Lumber Dispute: likely impacts along the supply chain Harry Nelson Associate Professor Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia Western Forestry Contractor Association Annual Conference Kelowna, BC February 7-9, 2018

What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber?

What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber? “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” George Santayana, American Philosopher, Harvard University 1905

What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber? “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” George Santayana, American Philosopher, Harvard Univerty 1905

Overview How Lumber V could ripple throughout the chain And over time Additional source of information https://edc.trade/canada-lumber/ https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42789.pdf

Other trends Harvest Policy? ?

Historic softwood lumber prices

Peaks in the Past Decade and a Half https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/forestry/forest-industry-economics/weekly-prices/weekly-price-report_2018-2-2.pdf

Past Year: Weekly Lumber Prices in North America

Price Summary Historically High Prices Today Tariffs being Passed Through to US Consumers

What next? Previous experience Are the politics or economics any different?

Other Trends: Harvest

Harvest Trends Downward-midterm timber supply pressures Recent wildfires & potential increase in fire/disturbances

Policy Data Source Responsibility Reported Forecasted Licensee Calendar Year Licensee BCTS & FSMF Enhanced Basic FFT LCEF 2017 Fire s108 Other Total 2000 170 30 8 208 2001 179 31 9 219 2002 160 32 5 197 2003 165 7 202 2004 158 29 1 6 193 2005 161 34 3 21 2006 178 50 2 18 248 2007 201 48 4 262 2008 57 242 2009 130 45 15 198 2010 112 40 176 2011 131 42 20 199 2012 164 37 27 234 2013 166 33 233 2014 168 36 28 237 2015 175 239 2016 26 2017 190 49 267 2018 187 47 260 2019 182 12 269     Data Source Responsibility Reported Forecasted Licensee RESULTS query Sept 18, 2017 SPAR sowing requests were used for 2017 and 2018. Using the 2018 value as a start point, calculated using the forecasted change in Provincial AAC reported in the Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch September 2017 harvest flow forecast. BCTS & FSMF

Implications Growing Disturbance Risks Harvest arrow down Economic capacity arrow turning down (downturn) Growing Disturbance Risks

How might it ripple through Unknowns (to me) Business models? Existing stresses in supply chain? Investment needs?

How might it ripple through? Unknowns (to me) Business models? Existing stresses in supply chain? Investment needs? Weekly Earnings, in Canada by Sector, in CDN$ including overtime (nominal) 2001 2016 % increase Support activities for forestry $ 771 $ 976 27% Logging $ 844 $ 1,186 41% Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction $ 1,153 $ 2,039 77% Wood product manufacturing $ 707 $ 1,013 43%

And the unknown unknowns…

Summary Negative trends Silver lining rests in concerted strategic and sustained policy direction Supported by business coordination