renewable energies forecast Optimizing the COSMO-DE Ensemble towards renewable energies forecast Jonas von Schumann, R. Kohlhepp, A. Steiner, B. Ritter and C. Köhler ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Generating COSMO-DE-EPS Optimization Outline Project ORKA Generating COSMO-DE-EPS Optimization ensemble perturbations boundary layer physics Summary ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Project ORKA ORKA Optimizing the ensemble nowcast of renewable input to secure net stability Project time span: 8/2012 - 7/2015 ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Project ORKA 1. Improving the nowcast (0-12 h) for power forecasts of renewable energies 2. Optimizing COSMO-DE-EPS wind forecasts at 100 m height (Hub-height) incoming solar radiation at the ground 3. Developing ensemble products for net security „worst case“ scenarios risk management ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Generation of COSMO-DE-EPS ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Generation of COSMO-DE-EPS BC-EPS for boundary and initial perturbations COSMO-DE-EPS 2.8km COSMO 7km BC-EPS GME, IFS, GFS, GSM ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Generation of COSMO-DE-EPS 20 ensemble members Initial conditions: 1 2 3 4 5 IFS GME GFS BC-EPS GSM ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

ensemble perturbations Optimizing the ensemble perturbations ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Ensemble perturbation 0.0 k 0.4 35 47 51 0.2 1.0 filter σ_h = 0 σ_h >= 500 Experiment with changes in the initial perturbations: op. filter new filter linear filtering full surface pressure perturbation horizontal smoothing from 20x20 GP to 5x5 GP ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Ensemble perturbation Results of EPS experiment: March 2013 Wind in 90 – 115 m Incoming solar radiation new Exp. ref. Exp. Skill Skill Spread Skill [m/s] Spread Skill [W/m²] Spread Spread Lead time [h] Lead time [h] R. Kohlhepp ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

boundary layer physics Optimizing the boundary layer physics ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Boundary layer physics Critical weather situation: Low Level Jet August 19th 2012: High pressure system over Germany August 19th 2012, 12:00 UTC A. Steiner ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Boundary layer physics Critical weather situation: Low Level Jet sensitivity study optimized turbulence parametrization of COSMO-DE: increase of stability during night artificial mixing at sunrise A. Steiner ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014

Summary ORKA optimizes ensemble forecast (0-12 h) for renewable energies new ensemble initial perturbation improving ensemble performance in the first forecast hours sensitivity study with modified physical parametrization shows improvements in forecasts of critical weather situations Outlook: Transfer the sensitivity study results into a revised parametrization. ORKA – J. v. Schumann – WWOSC – 08/2014