Predictive Modeling of Temperature and Precipitation Over Arizona

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Presentation transcript:

Predictive Modeling of Temperature and Precipitation Over Arizona Sereena Ginar Mentor: Dr. Xubin Zeng Susan Stillman Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences NASA Symposium, April 22nd, 2017 Arizona State University

Predictive Climate Modeling Statistical modeling using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s observational database Seasonal weather anomalies in the Southwestern United States http://www.eco-poetry.org/marilyn_kiss.html https://twitter.com/missrosenido http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/keynotes/keynotes_1015_coralbleachingresearch.html

El Niño Southern Oscillation Climate phenomenon consisting of oceanic and atmospheric components https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/enso-tech.php

The Walker Circulation Vertical circulation system connecting the Southern Oscillation and Sea Surface Temperatures in the western and equatorial Pacific Ocean http://www.southwestclimatechange.org/figures/walker_circulation

ENSO Events Coupling of unusually warm/cold surface waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean at the end of the year and a negative/positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Anomalous precipitation in the middle of the following year Not directly correlated with Southwest winter precipitation http://www.saguaro-juniper.com/i_and_i/san_pedro/ecoregions/arizona_uplands.html https://mizzoumag.missouri.edu/2013/05/if-trees-could-talk/

Objectives Quantify the skill of the predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Test a statistical model for the seasonal prediction of temperature and precipitation over Arizona

Data Analysis and Results Correlations between Arizona precipitation anomalies and the seasonal averages of various climate indices ENSO indices, sea level pressure, sea surface temperatures, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) No positive results were found Limited predictive power of PDO

Significance The observed climate indices may not have a substantial impact on anomalous temperature and precipitation in Arizona Exploration of further predictors https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2016-el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-update-what-goes-%E2%80%A6

Acknowledgements Dr. Xubin Zeng Susan Stillman Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences University of Arizona NASA Space Grant

Thank You

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