Diverging population trends

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Presentation transcript:

Diverging population trends Branislav Šprocha Centre for Social and Psychological Sciences SAS Boris Vaňo INFOSTAT – Demographic Research Center Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Introduction Until 1990 the old (socialist) model of reproductive behaviour, Transformation in the 1990s, Present – gradual stabilization of reproduction Population projection 2015 – 2050 Population prediction 2050 - 2100 Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Demographic determinants (for future population development) Fertility, mortality, migration World population development - developing vs. developed countries (first and second demographic transition) European population developmet - west vs. east Slovakia – significant changes after 1990 Expected population development Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Fertility marked by „postponement“ and „recuperation“ Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Total cohort fertility rate Children per woman ?? 1971... Cohort Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Structure of women by number of children and cohort Proportion (%) Cohort Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Cohort fertility rates Children per woman Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Total fertility rate Mean age at 1. birth

Mortality our life is extended – but... Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Life expectancy at birth Years Females Males Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Life expectancy at birth in selected European countries - males The „Western bloc“ Years The „Eastern bloc“ Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Life expectancy at birth in selected European countries - females The „Western bloc“ Years The „Eastern bloc“ Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Life expectancy at birth - MALES Life expectancy at birth - FEMALES

Migration ??? Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Net migration – red positive, blue negative

Population projection Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Population projection of Slovakia 2015 - 2100 Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Projection of population mean age in Slovakia 2015 - 2100 Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Age structure 2050 2050 2050 MALES FEMALES 2014 2014 Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Projection of main age groups in Slovakia 2015 - 2100 Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Projection of main age groups in Slovakia 2015 – 2100 (in %) Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

Population projection in Slovak districts 2012-2035 Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

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