Introduction to mergers evaluation Chris Jenkins Economics Director, CMA

Evaluation at the CMA 1. Measuring the impact of our interventions 2. Learning lessons for future cases Impact assessment Ex post evaluation

Overview of the mergers evaluation Largely qualitative assessment supplemented by quantitative analysis where data available Attempting to draw lessons across cases Important analytical issue in many merger cases Identified long list of 20 cases in last 8 years where entry/expansion importance to clearance Clear test – avoids counterfactual issues in testing merger remedies or prohibitions But only a one-way test Eight merger cases Focus on entry and expansion Clearance decisions only

Key questions for the analysis Did entry/expansion occur? Was it same type as predicted? In what timeframe? Was entry successful? Where no entry, could this have been foreseen? Phase 1 vs Phase 2 Reasons why entry did/didn’t occur Practical ways of improving analysis?