Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edu papers, etc: www.culturalcognition.net

www.culturalcognition.net Science Comprehension without Curiosity Is No Virtue, and Curiosity without Comprehension No Vice Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many x 103 others   Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES -0922714 Annenberg Public Policy Center

What am I talking about? ... Two (principal) studies, two dynamics: MS2R (motivated system 2 reasoning) Science curiosity Ground rules: Presentation punctuated by identified (identified) comment/question interludes

What am I talking about? ... Two (principal) studies, two dynamics: 1. MS2R (motivated system 2 reasoning) Science curiosity Ground rules: Presentation punctuated by identified (identified) comment/question interludes

What am I talking about? ... Two (principal) studies, two dynamics: 1. MS2R (motivated system 2 reasoning) Science curiosity Ground rules: Presentation punctuated by identified (identified) comment/question interludes

What am I talking about? ... Two (principal) studies, two dynamics: 1. MS2R (motivated system 2 reasoning) 2. Science curiosity Ground rules: Presentation punctuated by identified (identified) comment/question interludes

What am I talking about? ... Two (principal) studies, two dynamics: 1. MS2R (motivated system 2 reasoning) 2. Science curiosity Ground rules: Presentation punctuated by identified (identified) comment/question interludes

What am I talking about? ... Two (principal) studies, two dynamics: 1. MS2R (motivated system 2 reasoning) 2. Science curiosity Ground rules: Presentation punctuated by identified comment/question interludes

What am I talking about? ... Two (principal) studies, two dynamics: 1. MS2R (motivated system 2 reasoning) 2. Science curiosity Ground rules: Presentation punctuated by identified comment/question interludes

Comment/question interlude!

“Skin cream experiment”

“Skin cream experiment” 

“Gun ban experiment”

Four conditions

Comment/question interlude!

Correct interpretation of data skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Numeracy score

Covariance & Numeracy Derived via logistic regression. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

Correct interpretation of data skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Numeracy score

Correct interpretation of data Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserve Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub) skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Numeracy score

Correct interpretation of data Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserve Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub) skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Numeracy score

Best fitting regression model for experiment results rash_decrease 0.40 (1.57) rash increase 0.06 (0.22) crime increase 1.07 (4.02) z_numeracy -0.01 (-0.05) z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease 0.55 (2.29) z_numeracy_x_rash_increase 0.23 (1.05) z_numeracy_x_crime_increase 0.46 (2.01) z_numeracy2 0.31 (2.46) z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease 0.02 (0.14) z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase -0.07 (-0.39) z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase -0.31 (-1.75) Conserv_Repub -0.64 (-3.95) Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.56 (2.64) Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase 1.28 (6.02) Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase 0.63 (2.82) z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub -0.33 (-1.89) z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.33 (1.40) z_nuneracy_x__crime_increase 0.54 (2.17) z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase 0.26 (1.08) _constant -0.96 (-4.70) N = 1111. Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases 25%, ± 10 skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy 5%, ± 6 rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decrease rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Comment/question interlude!

Bounded rationality thesis (BRT)

Cultural cognition and Dual Process Reasoning Observational studies

conservrepub below avg conservrepub above avg How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT prediction Reality Extreme conservrepub below avg sample mean conservrepub above avg no risk

conservrepub below avg conservrepub above avg How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT prediction Reality Extreme conservrepub below avg sample mean conservrepub above avg no risk

conservrepub below avg Conservative Republican conservrepub above avg How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT prediction Reality Extreme Liberal Democrat conservrepub below avg sample mean sample mean Conservative Republican conservrepub above avg no risk Ordinary science intelligence 1.0 N = 1540. Adapted from Kahan, Peters et al., Nature Climate Change, 2, 732-735 (2012). Shaded area denotes 95% Cis.

conservrepub below avg Conservative Republican conservrepub above avg How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT prediction Reality Extreme Liberal Democrat conservrepub below avg sample mean Conservative Republican conservrepub above avg no risk Ordinary science intelligence 1.0 N = 1540. Adapted from Kahan, Peters et al., Nature Climate Change, 2, 732-735 (2012). Shaded area denotes 95% Cis.

Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Ordinary Science Intelligence 2.0 (z-score) N = 1600. shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.

Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Actively Open-minded Thinking (z-score) N= 750. Derived from logistic regression. Colored bars denote 0.95 CIs.

Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Probability of “agree” Conservative Republican Cognitive Reflection Test (no. correct) N = 1600. Brackets denote 0.95 CIs.

N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.

N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.

Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Motivated System 2 Reasoning (MS2R)

Bounded rationality thesis (BRT)

the problem with MS2R . . .

not too little rationality . . .

not too little rationality . . . but too much

tragedy of the science communications commons

Comment/question interlude!

What am I talking about? ... Two (principal) studies, two dynamics: 1. MS2R (motivated system 2 reasoning) 2. Science curiosity Ground rules: Presentation punctuated by identified comment/question interludes

The science of science filmmaking

State of the art “Science Curiosity” measure Test of Science Related Attitudes (TOSRA) I am curious about the world in which we live I find it boring to hear about new ideas I would enjoy visiting a science museum at the weekend I would like to be given a science book as a present I get bored when watching science programs on TV  

Performance measure

“Science Curiosity Scale” (SCS_1.0 ) A little but not closely (IRT graded response) .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 probability of pro-curiosity response -3 -2 -1 2 3 science curiosity read book on “scientific research or discoveries” in last yr Read science book in last yr BSCIENCE how closely follow news on “scientific research or discoveries” Not at all very closely A little but not closely closely Science Curiosity Scale Science Curiosity Scale

Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink Darwin’s Dangerous Idea Your Inner Fish

Engagement Index (z-score) Mass Extinction Engagement Index (z-score) Darwin’s Dangerous Idea Your Inner Fish Science curiosity scale (percentile) Bars denote 0.95 level of confidence

Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink Darwin’s Dangerous Idea Your Inner Fish Daily Hollywood Rundown

Engagement Index (z-score) Mass Extinction Engagement Index (z-score) Darwin’s Dangerous Idea Your Inner Fish Science curiosity scale (percentile) Bars denote 0.95 level of confidence

Engagement Index (z-score) Mass Extinction Engagement Index (z-score) Darwin’s Dangerous Idea Your Inner Fish Daily Hollywood Rundown Science curiosity scale (percentile) Bars denote 0.95 level of confidence

Comment/question interlude!

Political polarization . . . .

Q. Are “curious” partisans more likely to examine surprising contrary evidence?

Q. Are “curious” partisans more likely to examine surprising contrary evidence? 1. Believer unsurprising vs. skeptical surprising 2. Believer surprising vs. skeptical unsurprising

Probability of selecting surprising skeptic vs Probability of selecting surprising skeptic vs. unsurprising believer story .25 .5 .75 1 N = 733. Based on logistic regression model & monte carlo simulation.

below avg. science curiosity Probability of selecting surprising skeptic vs. unsurprising believer story Liberal Dem. below avg. science curiosity N = 733. Based on logistic regression model & monte carlo simulation.

below avg. science curiosity Probability of selecting surprising skeptic vs. unsurprising believer story 24% (10%, 45%) Liberal Dem. below avg. science curiosity N = 733. Based on logistic regression model & monte carlo simulation.

above avg. science curiosity below avg. science curiosity Probability of selecting surprising skeptic vs. unsurprising believer story 24% (10%, 45%) 68% (46%, 85%) Liberal Dem. above avg. science curiosity Liberal Dem. below avg. science curiosity N = 733. Based on logistic regression model & monte carlo simulation.

above avg. science curiosity below avg. science curiosity Probability of selecting surprising skeptic vs. unsurprising believer story 45% (± 31%) Liberal Dem. above avg. science curiosity Liberal Dem. below avg. science curiosity N = 733. Based on logistic regression model & monte carlo simulation.

below avg. science curiosity above avg. science curiosity Probability of selecting surprising believer vs. unsurprising skeptic story 20% (± 19%) Conserv. Repub. below avg. science curiosity Conserv. Repub. above avg. science curiosity N = 733. Based on logistic regression model & monte carlo simulation.

Comment/question finale!

www. culturalcognition.net “I am you!” 75

Testing BRT: Experimental studies

Testing BRT: Experimental studies

Testing BRT: Experimental studies

problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and 1 2 3 4 5 6 -1.6 -1 1.6 strongly agree moderately agree slightly agree slightly disagree moderately disagree strongly disagree Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent Conserv_repub “I think the word - problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and open minded someone is .”

problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and 1 2 3 4 5 6 -1.6 -1 1.6 strongly agree moderately agree slightly agree slightly disagree moderately disagree strongly disagree Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent Conserv_repub “I think the word - problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and open minded someone is .” control

problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and 1 2 3 4 5 6 -1.6 -1 1.6 strongly agree moderately agree slightly agree slightly disagree moderately disagree strongly disagree Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent Conserv_repub “I think the word - problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and open minded someone is .” “skeptics score higher” control

problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and 1 2 3 4 5 6 -1.6 -1 1.6 strongly agree moderately agree slightly agree slightly disagree moderately disagree strongly disagree Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent Conserv_repub “I think the word - problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and open minded someone is .” “believers score higher” “skeptics score higher” control

CRT = 0.65 “I think the word - problem test I just took supplies good 1 2 3 4 5 6 -1.6 -1 1.6 strongly agree moderately agree slightly agree slightly disagree moderately disagree strongly disagree Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent Conserv_repub “I think the word - problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and open minded someone is .” “believers score higher” “skeptics score higher” control CRT = 0.65

“skeptics score higher” control “believers score higher” CRT = 1

“skeptics score higher” control “believers score higher” CRT > 1

Correct interpretation of data rash decreases rash increases incorrect Numeracy score Lowess regression line.

Covariance & Numeracy Derived via logistic regression. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.