Jamie Austin, PacifiCorp

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Presentation transcript:

Jamie Austin, PacifiCorp DWG Meeting August 30, 2016 TEPPC 2026 Common Case – Load Validation Jamie Austin, PacifiCorp DWG Chair

Overview Version 1.3 Load Edits Validating the 2026 Hourly Load Forecast Annual Load Comparison Monthly Load Comparison Modeling of Conforming and non-Conforming Loads (Proposed short-term solution) Pending Issues \ Questions

Annual Load Factor: 81%

Annual Load Factor: 71%

Annual Load Factor: 71%

Annual Load Factor: 65%

Annual Load Factor: 72%

Annual Load Factor: 67%

Annual Load Factor: 61%

Monthly Load Comparison Kevin Harris

Monthly Load Comparison Monthly peak demand Monthly unitized shape Rank order is determined with the winter and summer season* Avg is based on rank order (2006-14) Shape is unsorted based on simple average (2006-14) Monthly Load Factor (LF) Historic is a simple average (2006-14) Average Daily LF (by month) * Note: Improvement can be made in the shape by adjusting the season

Issue found Do we model a planning or generic historic monthly shape? Tacoma winter peak in Jan or Feb (Resent historic indicates a Dec peak)

Monthly Load Factor Monthly LF remain stable They only change with a shift in resident/commercial/Industrial load PSE

“Round Trip” Accounting for no-Conforming Loads

Round Trip: Reconcile Lin vs. Lout Differences To fix the issue with Station Service (SS) load, it was suggested to write an “EPCL” post PCM. An alternative: (The 2026CC has SS values for just summer and zero values for remaining seasons) Export Bus_Load_Distribution File – Excel from PCM Filter LoadID (column D) looking for SS summer values Edit LoadID, using SS summer values to replace other seasons zero values (Autumn, Winter and Spring) Import LoadID back into PCM Turn off Loss Calculation

PAC Loads Lin Lout % diff TEPPC 2026CC V1.0 75,426,991 71,987,554 4.6 Scenario: 1 – Add SS load (Spring, Autumn and Winter) 73,796,234 2.2 2 – Scenario 1 + turned off loss calculation 75,352,251 0.1* * Scenario 2, (74.7GWh) 0.1% remaining difference accounts for negative loads.